Thanks to a sharp increase in the last days of May, pepper prices are now stable at over VND 50,000 / kg. Some experts think that pepper has entered a new price cycle.
Harvesting pepper in Binh Phuoc. Photo: Tran Trung
May 27 and May 29 are very interesting times for pepper this year. Specifically, on May 27, after nearly 1 year and a half (from January 10, 2019), the new pepper price returned to VND 50,000 / kg.
2 days later, pepper prices in key growing areas continued to increase sharply. Especially, on May 29, pepper price increased to VND 7,000 – 7,500 / kg from the previous day, to reach VND 60,000 / kg in Chau Duc (Ba Ria – Vung Tau). This is the latest price that has been obtained since November 2018.
After returning to the level of 60,000 VND / kg above, the last days of May, pepper prices have decreased. As of June 2, pepper price is fluctuating from 52,000 to 55,500 VND / kg.
According to Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice Chairman of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai), the price of pepper will be very unlikely to fall below 50,000 VND / kg. Because pepper plants need to sell pepper to invest in garden care when the rainy season comes or have money to spend for the family, it is already sold.
The sellers now are mainly speculators selling pepper to take profits and those who need money to pay off bank loans or external hot loans. The amount of pepper sold will therefore not be much.
Meanwhile, a number of businesses signed delivery contracts in June, but so far there is not enough demand, so they are continuing to buy.
Regarding production, Mr. Binh said that in recent years, he has visited many pepper growing areas and estimated that over 50% of the gardens are now very bad. The reason is that in the past few years, the price of pepper has been low, so many pepper growers have exhausted their ability to invest in tending the pepper gardens.
Many other households were discouraged, instead of just thinking, just talking about pepper such as high prices, now they have turned their attention to other crops such as avocado, jackfruit, or talking to work as workers …
The current price of over VND 50,000 / kg is not a good price, because with the production of farmers, the price per kg of pepper is approximately VND 50,000. If calculated correctly and fully (including land value and some other expenses) as announced by an enterprise, the production cost will reach VND 70,000 / kg.
Information from some pepper farmers in some localities shows that pepper production in the area in the 2019/2020 crop has decreased. Some places offer 10% discount, others discount 20% or more.
With the above situation of pepper gardens, it is likely that in the crop year 2020/2021, the pepper output will decrease more strongly.
Therefore, although on the general level of the world market at this time, the supply of pepper is still not lower than the demand, but some experts say that it has started to form a ground. New prices for pepper.
It can even be said that pepper has begun to enter a new price cycle in an upward trend.
With decades of experience monitoring the domestic and foreign pepper markets, Mr. Binh said that in the years 2001-2002, the price of pepper was very low, making pepper growers depressed.
Low prices lasted only until 2006, when the trend started to increase, at some point the price increased from 20,000 VND / kg to 40,000 VND / kg in just 3 months. Pepper prices increased until 2015, reaching a record high in history.
But from 206, the price of pepper decreased continuously and earlier this year to the bottom, sometimes at less than 35,000 VND / kg.
According to the previous rule, when the pepper price has reached the bottom, it will turn up, especially when the pepper production will decline significantly because a series of pepper gardens are no longer invested and cared for, many farmers in Vietnam. and other countries spend pepper to switch to other crops while the demand continues to increase.
According to NNVN
