In the morning of February 20, in Hanoi, the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development (IPSARD) organized a seminar “Sustainable animal husbandry development in the context of integration and ensuring disease safety” to divide Sharing the results of the integration impact assessment on the livestock sector and measures to ensure sustainable and safe livestock production.
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| View of the Workshop |
Pig breeding generates income for more than 3.4 million households, accounting for 26.9% of the total 9.32 million households producing agriculture, forestry and fisheries. In previous years, pig breeding grew at a rate of 1.5% / year.
In February 2019, African pig cholera shadowed the pig industry, for the first time to deal with a new disease, no vaccine, no specific medicine in the context of small-scale animal husbandry. For the majority, the loss to this extremely important industry is difficult to measure.
Over 5.9 million pigs have been destroyed, with a total weight of about 341,000 tons, accounting for 9% of the total; Pork production in 2019 was only 3.3 million tons, down 13.8% compared to 2018. Because there is no exact statistics on how many sows are culled, while this is objects to develop future commercial products.
Therefore, to assess the impact of the disease on the supply and demand of pigs, IPSARD's research team developed two simulation scenarios based on the sow. Specifically: Scenario 1 with sows lost 10% (approximately 580,000 heads) and scenario 2 with sows damaged 20% (equivalent to 1,160,000 heads). Along with the baseline scenarios for GDP growth, CPI, population, exchange rate, raw material price … the research team pointed out that African swine cholera has a direct impact on domestic pork supply. could reduce by 20% (scenario 1) to 35% (scenario 2) total domestic pork supply by 2020.
A shortage of supply will lead to a sharp increase in prices. According to the baseline scenario, without African pig cholera, the price of farm gate pigs is expected to be VND 46,000 / kg live pigs by 2020. The cholera epidemic will cause the average farm gate price in 2019 to increase by about 22% (scenario 1) 45.5% (scenario 2). If there is no outbreak, it is forecast that pork production in the baseline scenario will be 3.9 million tons by 2020.
In scenario 1, pork production will decrease to 3.15 million tons and to 2.55 million tons if scenario 2 happens. As a result, pork imports will increase sharply by 2020 to partially offset the pork shortage caused by the decline in domestic supply. Specifically, if the first scenario occurs, the amount of imported pork will increase to 7.1 thousand tons (equivalent to an increase of 29.5%) and to 8.9 thousand tons if the second scenario occurs ( equivalent to a 60% increase). Despite the sharp increase, imports are small compared to the supply of domestic pork. This can completely be explained by the fact that pork consumption can be replaced by consumption of some other substitutes such as beef and chicken. The shortage of supply and price increase of the product are the factors that cause the decline in domestic pork consumption. Domestic pork consumption will decrease by 14.6% (scenario 1) by 25% (scenario 2). Because, larger scale producers tend to want to re-herd early with a low herd size while small producers tend to have the opposite.
At present, the price of live hog has started to cool down, while the price of seed is quite high, making it difficult for the farmers to re-herd. According to Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Son – Director of Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine (Department of Agriculture and Rural Development in Hanoi), currently, the re-herd in the area is mainly on large farms, ensuring safety school, small farmers still do not dare to re-herd.
From this fact, it can be seen that household farming seems to be extremely difficult when looking for opportunities in the livestock industry. “Just a storm like the African swine cholera will cause small farmers to reduce significantly” – Mr. Tran Cong Thang, Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Rural Agriculture Development Thang stated a fact. .
Also according to Mr. Tran Cong Thang, integration will also create strong competitive pressure on both pork producers and retail markets, which will have a greater impact on farm and farm household scale when revenue Highly dependent on livestock.
Besides challenges, Mr. Tran Cong Thang said that this is an opportunity to restructure the livestock industry. Therefore, the State's policies should give priority to supporting localities and enterprises in building disease-free chains and zones; supporting small-scale animal husbandry households to convert production to other industries; developing poultry and grazing cattle … ensuring epidemic and biosecurity to ensure domestic meat supply. Well control the re-work. Strengthen early warning, market forecast information.
Regarding compensation assistance, priority should be given to allocating funds for prevention and support of losses due to African swine fever to provinces that identify pig production as a key provincial product.
Mr. Tran Cong Thang also said that businesses need to improve competitiveness, build link chains, support the formation of cooperatives and increase links with businesses; increase investment in areas specializing in raw materials, connecting with production households. Good breeding, breeding techniques to increase productivity and reduce costs; focus on improving the quality of food safety. For farmers, it is necessary to link up to form cooperative groups and cooperatives, proactively capture market information….
According to Industry and Trade Newspaper
