Regarding North America, Rabobank said that demand for US maize has declined for the second year in a row, and given the forecast that maize acreage will increase in 2020, the price of maize is expected to remain below $ 4 per bushel. 2020. Soybean inventories at the end of the period decreased in 2020 compared to 2019, which is expected to be a factor to support soybean prices. “We expect soybean area to increase but soybean prices will remain low if the US-China trade war continues.”
For the Brazilian market, Rabobank said that grain exports are expected to benefit from a stronger dollar, reducing US competitiveness in the international grain market and increasing demand for Brazilian corn. “Soybean exports may face difficulties if the US and China reach a trade agreement. In this case. Brazil will have to make efforts to export the redundant supply and may put downward pressure on domestic prices, thereby helping to lower feed prices in this market. ”
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| Global animal protein outlook in 2020 – Rabobank |
In Europe, the wheat and microcircuit harvest season is better than the forecast at the beginning of the crop year 2019/20. “The proportion of wheat in feed formula is expected to increase due to abundant supply,” according to market experts for agricultural commodities and livestock. However, feed price will depend on corn import from Brazil and Ukraine, along with EU wheat export.
As the impact of swine cholera continues to 2020 in China, the demand for grain for animal feed will be lower in 2018 but still slightly up from 2019, Rabobank said. “Demand for feed helps to recover but not enough to compensate for the upcoming decline in 2019. A decline in corn inventories will increase the pressure to push feed prices up.”
In Australia, the report shows that drought continues to affect production and reduce exports. Domestic wheat prices are being traded above the gender average for the past two years, making it difficult for Australia to compete in the global market, according to analysts. A sustained high price of Australian wheat could cause customers to shift from Australian wheat to supply from the US, Canada, the Black Sea and Argentina in 2020.
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| Global market outlook: ASF has a big impact – Rabobank |
Rabobank's view on livestock and poultry production by region in 2020
Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, is likely to see the global market for animal protein continue to be volatile in 2020. “In addition to the impact of swine cholera, disputes and trade issues that will destabilize the global animal protein market, with the US-China trade war being the most obvious, but not the only in the current trade instability. In addition, the emergence of alternative proteins has increased instability, although Rabobank is also less optimistic about animal protein alternatives. ”
North America
Rabobank predicts that all animal protein production will increase in 2020 – led by pork, followed by chicken and finally beef. While domestic consumption continues to grow, exports will need to increase to absorb production growth.
Brazil
Production growth is expected to occur in all animal protein segments. Export opportunities are a key driver although domestic demand has also increased.
Europe
Poultry and pork meat production is forecast to increase, mainly due to many export opportunities. Beef production is expected to decline due to weaker consumption.
China
Pork cholera accounts for all the attention and is expected to continue to decline in 2020. Production of other animal proteins will increase, considering the shortage of pork and the high price of pork.
Southeast Asia
ASF is impacting on pork production and the disease is expected to continue to spread in 2020, affecting pork supply. Chicken production will increase sharply again in 2020, partly due to the impact of pig cholera. Beef production remained flat but imports increased.
Australia and New Zealand
Inventories of livestock products in Australia have decreased due to declining beef production and stable lamb production in 2020. Prices of beef and lamb are expected to rise.
According to Feed Navigator Asia
