The newly released data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that the total import and export turnover of goods in nine months of 2019 was estimated at 382.72 billion USD, with an export turnover of 194.3 billion USD, an increase of 8 , 2% over the same period last year, import is estimated at 188.42 billion USD, up 8.9% over the same period in 2018.
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Export growth slowed down
Regarding exports, for the first 9 months of 2019, export turnover was estimated at US $ 194.3 billion, up 8.2% over the same period in 2018, equaling 73.9% of the year plan. This increase is lower than that of the same period of the period 2017-2018 with increases of 20.6% and 15.8%, respectively.
In terms of commodity groups, there are 31/45 items with an increase over the same period in 2018. Of which, there are 28 items reaching over US $ 1 billion, accounting for 90.96% of total export turnover.
Notably, exports of agricultural, forestry and aquatic products have decreased by 5.7% over the same period in 2018 due to difficulties in the market and selling prices. Specifically, seafood export turnover decreased by 1.7%; fruits and vegetables down 4.6%; cashew nuts down 6% while the amount increased by 20.2%; coffee down by 20.7% (quantity down by 12%); rice decreased by 9.7% (volume increased by 4.5%).
The group of fuels and minerals also decreased by 8% over the same period in 2018, reaching US $ 3.29 billion in the first 9 months of 2019. Of which, coal export turnover decreased by 53.2%, crude oil decreased by 8 , 6% despite a 2.6% increase in volume.
Processing industry continued to play a major role in the overall export growth, estimated at 163.66 billion USD, up 10.3% over the same period last year and accounting for 84.23% of total export turnover. higher than 82.6% in 2018 and 81.1% in 2017.
There are 5 items with the largest export turnover of Vietnam reaching over 10 billion USD, which belong to the processing and manufacturing industry. In particular, phones of all kinds were the highest turnover with $ 38.6 billion, up 5.1% over the same period in 2018. However, this growth was much lower than the growth rate of 16. , 4% in the first 9 months of 2018 and 23.3% in the first 9 months of 2017.
Export of phones and components has slowed down, which is one of the main reasons causing the overall export growth to be lower than previous years, although other key products maintained relatively high growth rates such as export turnover. computers increased by 16.9%; textile and garment increased by 10.4%; footwear increased by 13.5% and other machines, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 7.5%. Export turnover of these 5 items in the first 9 months contributed US $ 10.37 billion, accounting for 70.34% of the total increase of US $ 14.75 billion of the total export turnover over the same period last year.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the remarkable point is that the growth rate of export turnover of the domestic economic sector reached 16.4%, twice as much as the national growth rate (reaching 8.2%) and more than 3 times higher than FDI enterprises (5%). Thanks to this strong growth, the proportion of the domestic economic sector continued its upward trend, accounting for 30.7% of total exports (the same period last year was 28.5%).
Imports increased, maintaining trade surplus
Regarding imports, the total import turnover of goods in nine months reached US $ 188.42 billion, up 8.9% over the same period in 2018. Of which, in the group of goods to be imported, the import turnover was estimated at US $ 166 billion. , up 7.8% over the same period in 2018, accounting for 88.1% of total import turnover. In particular, computers, electronic products and components are the highest import items.
Notably, the import of complete units under 9 seats increased Strong 3.86 times in volume and 3.5 times in value over the same period in 2018, reaching 73,063 units worth US $ 1.39 billion.
So, in nine months, the trade balance of Vietnam still maintained a trade surplus, with a trade surplus of 5.9 billion USD, of which the domestic economic sector had trade deficit of 19.4 billion USD. ; the foreign invested sector (including crude oil) saw a surplus of 25.3 billion USD.
Beware of the consequences of US-China trade war
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam's export activities in the first 9 months occurred in the context that the world economy tended to slow down with risk factors, increasing challenges, and trade activities. and world investment decline due to disagreements among major countries on the shape of the deepening global trading system, especially the trade war between the US and China continues to be complicated and the British problem Leaving the EU has not yet been resolved.
Although the export growth rate of 8.2% in 9 months is somewhat slow compared to the same period in 2018 and 2017, it still meets the goal set by the National Assembly to bring export growth from 7% – 8% in 2019. .
In September, Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 points, which showed that business conditions only improved slightly, and the improvement level was the weakest since February 2016. In addition, the PMI index fell from 51.4 points in August, the second consecutive decline, showing that Vietnam's PMI has followed the downtrend of ASEAN PMI. This proves that Vietnam is not outside the influence of trade tensions between the US and China.
Some industries that have been the driving force of export growth such as electronics, computers and optical products, especially mobile phones, are no longer able to maintain impressive growth rates as in the previous period. When the growth motivation from Samsung enterprises is still a mystery in the context of global sales from Samsung has not shown signs of positive growth again.
In particular, trade experts also warned that the Chinese currency devaluation of the renminbi will directly affect Vietnam's exports of goods, especially agricultural and aquatic products.
Accordingly, the falling RMB against the USD will directly affect the competitiveness of Vietnam's agricultural exports against China in the world market, especially those with many advantages and turnover. Major exports such as seafood, wood and wood products, coffee and pepper to the US and European markets.
At the same time, the devaluation of the renminbi will have more impact on Vietnam's exports to the Chinese market, when Vietnam's agricultural exports such as vegetables, rubber, aquatic products, timber Price is relatively higher than before and less competitive than similar products in the Chinese market.
In addition, the RMB is also expected to weaken further in 2020, so it will continue to have a great impact on Vietnam's exports in the near future.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's imports from China increased sharply in the correlation and geopolitical situation, trade tensions between the US – China are raising concerns about the phenomenon of imported goods from China. China borrowed Vietnam to evade origin and re-export to the US to avoid taxes. Especially in the context, Vietnam's exports to the US are also increasing sharply in recent years.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade continued to recommend that the rapid increase of US trade deficit with Vietnam could lead to the increase of import controls from Vietnam and Vietnam, which could easily be targeted by Chinese goods avoidance inspection. disguised as America, affecting export enterprises, as well as negatively affecting investment.
Take advantage of supply chain to boost exports
In this context, in order to promote export growth in the remaining quarter, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that it is necessary to take advantage of every opportunity for Vietnam's exports of goods, control imports into Vietnam and handle problems. deals with tax evasion, fraud of goods origin in import and export activities with the US, China and other countries markets.
At the same time, focus on addressing issues related to capacity building to boost production and exports to spur growth in sectors. Develop a plan to organize production, support domestic enterprises to improve production capacity, anticipate and participate in the supply chain of foreign businesses moving away from China, improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese exports to take advantage of the trade war.
In addition, the Ministry also advised businesses to carefully calculate in solutions to promote investment to expand production and export scale, to avoid developing “overboard” and easy to fall into passive situation. , excess output when the US and China reach an agreement to re-export.
Hieu Minh
Source: Securities Quick News
