After a long time of holding at the price of over 40,000 VND / kg, pepper prices in recent days have dropped sharply and below the aforementioned level.
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| A pepper garden in Dong Nai. |
It is likely that pepper prices will continue to decline in the 2019/2020 crop.
1 kg pepper loss is 10,000 dong
According to Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice Chairman of Chu Se Pepper Pepper Association (Gia Lai), the price of pepper (at the first price) in Chu Se earlier this week was only VND 39,000-39,500 / kg.
Information from the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that at the end of last week, there was a mass discount in pepper growing provinces. By the beginning of this week, the price of pepper in Dong Nai continued to decrease by VND 1,500 / kg to VND 38,000 / kg. Pepper prices in other provinces remained low: Ba Ria – Vung Tau 42,500 VND / kg; Dak Lak, Dak Nong and Binh Phuoc are all priced at VND 41,500 / kg; Gia Lai 39,500 VND / kg. Thus, the price of pepper in Gia Lai and Dong Nai has dropped below 40,000 VND / kg.
The price of pepper fell to below 40,000 VND / kg in some localities in the past few days is beyond the expectation of many experts and businessmen in the pepper industry, who still expect the price of pepper to maintain at 41,000-42,000 VND. / kg.
Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh said that a long time ago, the price of new pepper was below 40,000 VND / kg. However, if before, when the price of pepper was below 40,000 VND / kg, then the price was lower. At present, when the pepper price is around 40,000 VND / kg, the average price is 49,000 VND / kg. Calculated, pepper growers are heavy losses, with a level of about 10,000 VND / kg.
Prices will bottom out
According to some experts in pepper industry, pepper price has not stopped here but it will be further reduced. Firstly, Vietnam's and worldwide pepper production is still far beyond demand. According to the International Pepper Community (IPC), global pepper production is expected to be 602,000 tons this year, while world demand is currently around 510,000 tons / year. In Vietnam, it is estimated that about 100,000 ha of pepper are being harvested, with an average yield of 2.47 tons / ha, equivalent to an output of about 247,000 tons.
On the other hand, when pepper prices continue to fall, many farmers will stockpile in the hope that prices will increase. Because as usual, in October every year, the price of pepper on the world market as well as in Vietnam often increases due to the shortage of supply because Vietnam is preparing to enter a new crop. However, with the strong development in terms of area and output in Brazil and some other countries over the past few years, in October every year, there is no longer a shortage of pepper supply worldwide. as before.
Therefore, the fact that many farmers store pepper, plus the newly harvested pepper output of the crop year 2019/2020 (starting in December 2019 with the pepper gardens in Dak Nong coming into harvest), will causing pepper prices in the next season to continue falling. Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh said that the price of 2019/2020 pepper is likely to be from 35,000 to 38,000 VND / kg.
According to Binh, the crop year 2019/2020 will be the crop year that the price of pepper reaches the bottom. By this time, pepper growers have generally “exhausted” after a long time the price is always low, below cost. Therefore, the area of pepper trees that is neglected and left unattended will increase sharply, causing a decrease in production. Besides, the disease will also reduce a lot of area as well as pepper production. Therefore, after reaching the bottom, pepper prices will probably start to rise again.
However, if the price decreases, the price of pepper has decreased rapidly, then when it increases again, the price of pepper is unlikely to increase rapidly. Therefore, to bring prices back to around 60,000-70,000 VND / kg, a few more pepper crops may be needed.
