According to Nongnghiep.vn
The General Department of Customs said that coffee exports in January 2025 reached about 140,000 tons with 763 million USD, down 41.1% in volume but increased by 5% in value over the same period in 2024.
The average price of coffee exported in January 2025 was estimated at US $ 5,450/ton, up 78.5% over the same period in 2024. Due to high demand, the import market pulled domestic coffee prices in the beginning of 2025, currently at more than 130,000 VND/kg and close to the historic landmark of 134,000 VND/kg (April 29, 2024).
According to data from Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association, in January 2025, Vietnam exported more than 150,000 tons of coffee, export turnover reached nearly 800 million USD. In particular, Nhan coffee only reached about 137,000 tons, the turnover of nearly 700 million USD, down 38.2% in volume but an increase of 8.8% in turnover compared to the same period 2024.
In particular, processed coffee exported about 17,000 tons, turnover of 104 million USD. This was a continuation of the results in 2024, when Vietnam exported nearly 1.35 million tons of coffee, collecting a record turnover of 5.62 billion USD.
Regarding market share in 2024, Germany, Italy and Spain are the three largest coffee consumption markets in Vietnam, with the proportion of 10.7%, 8.2%, and 7.9%respectively. In particular, coffee exports grow in all markets in the group of 15 largest export markets, the strongest increase is in Malaysia (up 2 times) and the Netherlands (up 94%).
For many consecutive years, Vietnam continues to maintain as the world’s number one Robusta coffee supplier. However, when the price of coffee is at a high level today, many exporters will face the issue of supply and contracts previously signed.
In addition, the rapid increase in coffee prices also put pressure on the ordered orders at a lower price, affecting the ability to perform the manufacturer’s contract.
Vietnamese coffee has a year of 2024.
Forecasting about the development of 2025, the Department of Import and Export (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that coffee exports will continue to grow as the demand for consumption of countries around the world continues to rise, while Brazil – the number one coffee exporting country – is forecast to decrease.
According to Safas & Mercado, the total Brazilian coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop is expected to reach 62.45 million bags, down 5% compared to the previous crop. Particularly, Arabica coffee only reached 38.25 million bags, a sharp decrease of 15%, and Robusta coffee reached 24.1 million bags. Organizations such as Volcafe, Expana and Hedegpoint have also lowered the forecast of Brazilian coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop, especially the Arabica coffee line.
One of the reasons is due to adverse weather in Brazil’s main Arabica coffee growing area. The meteorological agency said that rainfall at Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica coffee producing state in Brazil, last week was only 43.2mm, 17% lower than the historical average.
In contrast to Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to increase by about 1.8 million bags in 2025, to 24.4 million bags thanks to the improved supply. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption in 2025 is expected to add about 5.1 million bags, reaching 168.1 million bags. Most of the increase from the European Union (EU), the United States and China.
The EU is still the largest coffee consumption market in the world, with an expected consumption of more than 42 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop, an increase of more than 2.4 million bags compared to the previous crop.
The need to import coffee from Europe is likely to continue to increase, with anxiety when the EU executes EUDR. At that time, countries in a short time could not import enough coffee for domestic consumption because the source could not guarantee 100% of the new standards.
Along with that, China is expected to increase coffee nearly 150% in the past 10 years and are forecasted to reach 6.3 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop. With the domestic output of this country, it only fluctuates around 2 million bags, they will have to promote imports to meet the increasing domestic demand.
Vietnamese coffee prices benefit when the global supply is affected.
With the EU market, the Vietnamese deal in Sweden noted that the enterprise built a clear traceability system, ensuring that EURR’s requirements include products that do not cause deforestation, compliance with laws in the production country, sharing information of specific geographical location of the coffee growing area.
In addition, export enterprises should be prepared early and fully to comply with EUDR both to ensure no interrupting trade and creating prestige with Nordic customers. At the same time, detailed estimates of EURD compliance costs, which include plans to support local people.
Mr. Duong Duc Quang, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that the supply of coffee from Vietnam will increase gradually, at least the first quarter of 2025. “The price of coffee maintained momentum from the end of 2024 is mainly from concerns about the shortage of supply in the market,” Mr. Quang said.
Mr. Phan Minh Thong, General Director of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company predicted a bright picture of coffee in 2025. He believes that the world coffee buyers will flock to Vietnam and Indonesia to buy coffee. The export value of this item is more likely to exceed $ 6 billion, even up to $ 7 billion if coffee fever is the same as 2024.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association, evaluated, year of 2024-2025 coffee growers will still have the opportunity to increase the export market. However, for sustainable export activities, he recommends that businesses limit the purchase – far away. At the same time, creating strong links with farmers to create high quality gardens, towards sustainable development. Vietnamese enterprises are also noted to enhance the promotion of Robusta coffee, as a quality alternative with lower price.
2024 was a special year for the coffee industry. This is the first year, the highest price of Vietnamese coffee in the world. Robusta coffee price is also higher than the price of Arabica coffee – something that has never happened.
The growth of coffee in January 2025 is in contrast to the common picture of the export of agricultural products in January 2025. Specifically, the turnover of items in the month reached US $ 5.08 billion, down 4.9% compared to the same period in 2024.
