The price of Arabica coffee has dropped for 2 consecutive weeks, the reason is thought to be because the Real’s dollar is plummeting, so Brazil’s Real’s Real dollar from 5,689R has been exchanged for 1USD 8 days ago, until the weekend, it has dropped to 5,882R to change 1 USD. The continuous decline of the Real coin in the 8 sessions of the Brazilian farmer launched to sell, causing the price of Arabica to fall up to 16.2 cents, closing at 373.05 cents/pound compared to 389.25 cents of last week. Robusta coffee also ended a week of decline compared to the previous week, which marked the failure of this coffee in the entrenched at the price of $ 5717/ton last week to close this week to only $ 5330/ton, down to $ 387/ton.
The weakness of the Real dollar of the week has caused liquidation of the purchase position for the contracts that push coffee prices to the low level of the past month on Wednesday.
Thus, it can be said that coffee prices decreased not thanks to the improvement of the supply because the amount of Robusta inventory by ICE has not increased but has dropped to the lowest level in the past 2 months on Friday when the amount of inventory is 424 Lot. In addition, Arabica coffee has also dropped to the lowest level in 9 and a half months last week, at 758,514 bags. This is understandable, because the world where to get coffee now to improve the supply?.
In addition, according to Safras & Mercado data reported last Monday that Brazilian producers sold 88% of their 2024/25 coffee harvest, as of February 11, faster than the same number as the same period of last year was 79% and the 5 -year average was 82%, which means that there is less coffee from supply for sale. Meanwhile, sales of crops in 2025/26 are slow at 13% of crops, much lower than the average of 4 years of 22%, these numbers analysis shows a lack of new supply and producers do not want to sell.
The Chinese Customs authorities reported that the country exported 541,667 bags of coffee in 2024, up 358% over the same period last year, with export markets of the Netherlands, Germany and the United States. With the season taking place in China, Arabica coffee is mainly grown in Yunnan province and is expected to produce about 1.80 million bags for the current 2024/2025 coffee crop, equal to the previous coffee crop.
According to the Hindu Bureau newspaper
The Unified Coffee Growing Association of South India (Upasi) has expressed concerns about the decrease in productivity and the high costs they face due to climate change.
The Association said in a press release that erratic types of weather lead to prolonged drought, left -season rain and increased pests and diseases continues to cause serious challenges for coffee production in India.
The average Indian coffee productivity has decreased from 947 kg/ha in 2000 to 814 kg/ha in 2023, while the yield of Arabica coffee decreased from 815 kg/ha to 464 kg/ha in the same period.
Moreover, coffee plantations require a lot of labor, making wage costs an important component of production. We know that Indian coffee is grown under the forest trees and the irrigation is delivered to the sky completely, so it depends greatly on the weather.
UPASI President K. Mathew Abraham said that before, coffee prices have decreased for a long time and during that period, the cost variable has increased many times. India, with global export market share of 4.8%, is the country that accepts prices and the current price increase is mainly due to shortage. However, these things do not support coffee plantations to meet the increasing costs, Upasi said.
Here is a information that should only be considered as a weekend chat about coffee prices among business businesses, although it is chat but the topic is a question that seems to be what many people want to know, that is The price of coffee can increase.
As mentioned, this is just a weekend chat topic, we should not use it to refer to any important business plan, because this is shared on social networking sites, but what the roasted roasted coffee is also a topic we should research.
In early February 2025, the price of Arabica coffee has soared to the highest level ever, reaching 441 cents/pound. This figure is twice as high as a year ago, causing many roasters and traders to go crazy when they have to adjust the budget to ensure coffee shipments for the coming months.
But after reaching the highest level of all time, Arabica coffee prices fell below 400 cents, due to a record export from Brazil and the recovery of global Arabica inventory. Although this news can temporarily reduce the pressure on the profit margin of roasters and traders, many people believe that the trend of increasing coffee market has not ended.
The discussions about the price of 500 cents are becoming more and more popular, some people offer even more terrible numbers. Although it seems unbelievable compared to a few years ago, they are quickly becoming a reality for the coffee industry – and will shape the “business operations” in the long term.
The writer talked to Bob Fish, CEO and co -founder of Biggby Coffee, a chain of franchise cafes in Michigan, USA, opened for the first time in 1995, to find out how high coffee price could increase and what would this mean to the industry.
There have been unprecedented prices on the coffee market in the past two years. The unexpected harvest in the main production countries is Brazil and Vietnam, the supply chain is interrupted after political instability and the increasing global demand has exhausted the Arabica and Robusta reserves, pushing the price to the highest level ever.
“In 2022, when the consumption exceeds the supply, there is still a lot of reserves in both Brazil and Vietnam, but the shortage of output is still continued due to the impact of climate change devastating production,” according to Bob Fish. “Due to low prices, manufacturers cannot invest in land ecosystem management. The use of too many inputs has also accelerated the barren process of soils of planting areas, reducing productivity.
“We are also lacking in coffee pickers worldwide, causing labor costs to rise, making the majority of coffee not harvested. Input costs as fertilizer have increased since the Russian-Kraine war, while logistics have not been improved since Covid-19, increasing risks. ”
The complex interaction of the issues has led to the highest coffee price ever (when not adjusted by inflation), changing market motivation and forcing all agents in the supply chain to change their strategy.
“Some large exporters have collapsed and bankrupt, causing contracts not to be done,” Bob said. “For exporters who are still active, their purchasing power has been half reduced and can be reduced by one third at the end of this buying cycle. Risk management also increased along with tariff threats to any country at any time. ”
Proposal to impose sanctions on goods imported from Colombia of the United States Trump has shocked the coffee market, exacerbating the high and fluctuated capital price. If (or maybe when) is done, the US consumer will eventually pay the price.
How high can coffee prices increase?
Two weeks after reaching the highest level in market history C, the price of Arabica coffee has dropped below 380 cents. It is motivated by a record export of Brazil and the recovery of global Arabica inventory, but this decline orbit is expected to not last long.
There are reports on a number of manufacturers waiting for the price to rise again, forcing traders to borrow more credit and continue to make more fragile profit margin tensions. The increased risk can push the price higher, with many people in the industry questioning whether we can see another record high at the end of March or early April.
But the price may increase as much as the question that many people in the industry are asking.
Bob said, “the level of 550 cents/pound seems to be a reasonable number, but the level of 750 cents/p is not impossible.” “Even 1000 cents can happen; Look at the cocoa market last year. ”
From January to April 2024, the price of cocoa increased nearly tripled, soaring from US $ 4,444/ton to more than 12,538 US dollars. Being worse by the crisis of the Red Sea and the adverse weather in Ghana and Ivory Coast, which led to a global supply by 11%, this significant price increase has made Cocoa buyers crazy.
Consumers feel affecting their pocket. According to data from Guardian’s article, chocolate prices at supermarkets in the UK increased from 40 to 88% in a year because of the agents in the supply chain.
The previous record in 1977 for Arabica contracts, which were adjusted by inflation by 2025 by inflation computers of the US Labor Statistical Office, is equivalent to more than 170 cents/pound. The current coffee price is still far from this number, showing how low coffee is valued as a item and it is also likely to show what may happen if the price continues to increase with inflation rate.
Recent prices on the coffee market have affected roasters, many roasters operate with tight profit margin. However, waiting for the price to decrease or stabilize has caused them to be hurt, there is a risk of low inventory (which is difficult to withdraw as a supply) and will put further pressure to ensure the supply.
“To decrease coffee prices, output needs to be increased or the demand needs to be reduced. Bob said the first goal is to achieve because Brazil will need the weather almost perfect to be able to harvest the case in mid -2026.
If there are upcoming price increase, most roasters increase retail prices to prepare for the coming months. In a recent article, Royal Coffee coffee importer recommends an increase of 2 to 4 US dollars/pound for whole roasted coffee, equivalent to an increase of 25 to 50 cents for each cup or drink.
However, if the price of Arabica coffee reaches a new high level in the coming months, the retail price will need to increase further. Depending on how high price increases, roasters may need to double the price for each cup to cover the added costs of coffee. The impact on consumers can be significantly.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
