The price of Arabica coffee summarizes last week plummeted, the reason is that the amount of inventory on the ICE floor increased again, ending the week closing at 389.25 cents compared to the previous week ended at 407.4 cents. /pound. Particularly, the price of Robusta coffee, although there is a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, but the price of the weekly closed door is still entrenched at $ 5,717/ton, which proves that Robusta coffee supply really has a problem when It cannot be pressed down below 5k at the time of the harvest.
In addition, Vietnam’s domestic coffee price, almost immune to the floating on the floor at this time, the domestic market still holds and increases to 134,000 VND/kg at the end of a week when the market The world remains the same.
According to Safras & Mercado agricultural business consulting company reported last Monday that Brazilian producers sold 88% of the harvested coffee of the year 2024/25 as of 11 months. 2, faster than the same number as the same period last year is 79%. Meanwhile, the season sales of 2025/26 (not collected) slowly at 13% of the expected output, much lower than the average of 4 years of 22%, shows that the producer does not want to sell because it is still Maintain the viewpoint of cafe is still in thirst.
Cecafe on Wednesday reported that Brazil’s export coffee exports in January / 2025 decreased by 1.6% over the same period last year. In addition, on January 28, Conab, the Brazilian government’s season forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee season will drop 4.4% over the same period last year to low levels to low levels. The best in 3 years is 51.81 million bags.
Above are the two information that seems to go against some communications that the price of Arabica coffee is expected to decrease by the end of 2025. It was inevitable that the Editorial Board had a bit of doubt about the type of communication to lead/decrease of some of this volatile market.
Rainfall below normal in Brazil still increases concerns about the coffee season and will also support the price of coffee after the Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that the planting area was on Monday. Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee, Minas Gerais, only received 12.4 mm of rainfall last week, equivalent to 20% of the average rainfall in history.
Refer to the latest independent forecast, from a brokerage company in Brazil reported that for the Brazilian coffee crop from July 2025 to June 2026, the output is expected to be at the level. 59.75 million bags. This figure is about 8.00% lower than the current coffee crop 2024/2025. The report forecasts that, in which Arabica production will reach about 36.46 million bags, which is 16% compared to the same period last year and the Conilon Robusta will reach 23.29 million bags, which increases by 8% compared to the same period of the year. before.
The amount of Arabica coffee stored on New York floor increased by 4,510 bags on Thursday, reaching 779,063 bags
Meanwhile, the amount of Robusta coffee inventory of the ICE market is at 4,322 lots on Friday last week, increasing negligible compared to the beginning of the previous week of 4,297 lots.
The transaction price difference of May between London and New York markets is currently at 129.39 cents/pound. This figure is a fairly large gap with high value towards Arabica, we know that this difference in tradition is usually in the range of 90-99 cents, especially in the time when the price of Robusta starts. In the rise, this difference frame is usually in the range of 32-35 cents/pound, with this difference too far, most likely the adjustment to the model or Robusta needs to increase again or Arabica Need to lower Low down to return to the real value that these two types are in the market. This is a valuable frame that roasters often look at to adjust the mixing ratio so that the consumer is still acceptable.
As reported last week we mentioned a recent Reuters poll, market analysts predicting the price of future Arabica coffee will drop by 30% by the end of 2025.
However, others are skeptical. The discussion of “new normal state” for future Arabica coffee prices continues. Many exporters and large roasters said their prices may never drop below 400 cents/pound again, they pointed out that the increasingly serious climate crisis is the main motivation caused. The shortage of supply.
The most recent consumer price report showed that the retail price of roasted coffee increased by 2.5% in January compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the price of instant coffee increased by 7.1% in the same period – and these figures are expected to only increase in the next few months.
The coffee industry has the ability to recover and have overcome similar storms, most recently the pandemic. The persistent fluctuations of the market and increasing retail prices set out similar challenges and opportunities to reshape the global coffee industry, both in the short and long -term.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
