How does coffee price fluctuate?
The world market has a record high price of Arabica coffee. Specifically, on the morning of February 4 (Vietnam time), the price of Arabica coffee on New York exchange was delivered in March 2025 at 8.400 USD/ton an increase of 70 USD/ton compared to the previous day. The monthly term of May 2025 was 8,250 USD/ton, an increase of 70 USD/ton compared to yesterday.
This is the 8th consecutive session of Arabica coffee price increased and set the highest price ever. The reason for the increase in the price of Arabica coffee is concerned that the supply is increasingly tight.
According to Reuters Brazil’s National Food Supply Agency – the world’s largest coffee exporter – said that the country’s Arabica coffee production is expected to fall by 12.4% to 34.7 million bags over five years. 2025, due to the heat and drought before flowering, reduces crop yields.
According to market analyst Haroldo Bonfá, coffee prices on New York can continue to increase to 8,500 USD/ton.
On London, on the morning of February 4, the price of Robusta coffee delivered in March 2025 was at 5.534 USD/ton, down 184 USD/ton compared to the previous session. The term delivered in May 2025 was at 5.520 USD/ton, down 174 USD/ton compared to the early morning.
Previously, the price of online coffee Robusta delivered in March 2025 on London has reached a record of 5,734 USD/ton in the trading session on January 31. Although later decreased slightly, but still maintained at a high price.
The price of coffee constantly ‘dancing’ during the Lunar New Year 2025. Artwork.
At the beginning of the morning of 4/2, domestic coffee prices increased sharply after 2 days of passing, reaching 130,600 VND/kg, an increase of VND 1,700/kg compared to the previous trading session.
The highest coffee price purchased in the key areas of the Central Highlands is recorded at 130,700 VND/kg.
Specifically, the price of coffee today in Dak Lak is 130,500 VND/kg (up 1,700 VND/kg), the price of coffee in Lam Dong has a price of 129,700 VND/kg (up 1,900 VND/kg), coffee price at the price Gia Lai has a price of 130,500 VND/kg (an increase of VND 1,700/kg) and coffee price in Dak Nong today costs 130,700 VND/kg (up 1,700 VND/kg).
Thus, in Lam Dong, coffee prices increased by VND 1,900/kg, the remaining provinces increased steadily VND 1,700/kg.
Bold growth growers?
The report at the end of January 2025 was quoted by the Department of Import -Export – Ministry of Industry and Trade as saying that the freight is also one of the reasons why global coffee price increases. The serious clogging of the port in Brazil has made it difficult for logistics activities at export ports.
The National Coffee Association (NCA) forecasts the coffee industry in this country will grow slightly next year. Coffee consumption in the United States is still the world’s top, estimated at 24 million bags per year. The NCA report recorded that coffee sales in 2024 reached US $ 19.7 billion, which is expected to increase slightly this year.
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), concerns about the supply in the two largest coffee producing countries in the world, Brazil and Vietnam have pushed the price of climbing coffee.
During the Lunar New Year holidays, the price of coffee on the exchanges skyrocketed, pulling the price of domestic coffee to reach the historic peak. As soon as returning to work after Tet, domestic coffee prices officially exceeded 130,000 VND/kg.
According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai – Chairman of Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa), more than 90% of the coffee area across the country has been harvested. Right from the beginning of the crop, many experts have estimated that the output will decrease by 10-15% compared to the same period in the previous crop, but up to this point, the output may only decrease slightly by about 5%.
Currently, some regions continue to harvest late -ripe coffee. Overview of the harvest has ended. With high prices, this season crop of “bold” coffee growers.
The weather in the Central Highlands is in the dry season with higher temperatures and low rainfall. This may continue to affect the quality of coffee beans, reduce production and promote prices.
As recommended by experts, farmers need to increase investment in the quality of coffee beans, aiming to meet international standards. The closely monitoring of market movements is essential to make a reasonable sales decision, avoiding unnecessary damage.
