Rice export forecast in 2025 has difficulty

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Source: baodantoc.vn

Rice exports in 2024 continued to set a record, helping Vietnam maintain the top 3 of the world’s largest rice exporting countries. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2024, Vietnam exported 9.18 million tons of rice, collecting 5.75 billion USD. Compared to 2023, although the export volume only increased by about 13%, the turnover increased by 23% thanks to the sharp increase in export price.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai – Deputy Director of Import -Export Department – Ministry of Industry and Trade of Information and Export in 2024 reached a record in part thanks to the higher unit price than previous years. Vietnamese rice achieved an average export unit price of 627 USD/ton (previously below 600 USD/ton), an increase of about 9% compared to 2023.

Vietnamese rice has traveled around the world with about 150 countries and territories. Businesses have also taken advantage of market opportunities from new generation free trade agreements. Besides traditional markets such as China, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia …

After reaching a record high in 2024, Vietnam’s rice exports in 2025 will most likely reduce both the amount and price compared to 2024. manufacture.

As of the first half of January 2025, Vietnam’s export rice price has dropped sharply to the lowest level over the past two years due to weakening demand. Export rice price average price compared to the weekend. According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), currently standard rice is 5% of the broken sheet at 419 USD/ton; 25% broken rice at 395 USD/ton; 100% broken rice at 326 USD/ton. However, compared to the beginning of the previous week, Vietnam’s export rice price still tends to decrease. Earlier last week, our 5% broken rice was also offered at 422 USD/ton, down from 460 USD/ton of a week before.

While Indian rice price is nearly 18 months and Thailand has reached the bottom since April 2023.

According to information from the business, geography for rice exports in 2025 is still very little in the context of the background of 2024 inherently high while there are too many adverse factors related to the market, especially When India loosened the rice export limit command.

Over the past two years, India’s inventory is large because they tighten the export of rice to the globe. Therefore, in the coming time, when the country looses rice export restrictions, it will put pressure on other exporting countries, including Vietnam. Moreover, before the harvest, Vietnamese rice prices are relatively high, so many importers move to other countries to buy sooner.

In 2025, the price of rice may be lower than 2023 – 2024 and is likely to be lower than 2022 or just a little higher. At the end of the calendar year, many large rice -growing countries have entered the harvest season, including Vietnam, which is entering the winter -spring harvest, causing the price of Vietnamese rice to fall quickly.

In the Philippines, in the past few days, the government has tightened the issue of rice prices, so ministries and agencies are strengthening the market review. The importers are also cautious, and the psychology of importers also have many new sources, so they do not rush to sign with Vietnam. Therefore, the year -end rice order was delivered in the beginning of this year.

Economic experts say that the adverse fluctuations of rice prices will not cause great damage, especially when the exporting enterprises and functional agencies take the initiative in stabilizing the reasonable purchase of rice reserves, raw materials in the people.

Enterprises propose the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development together with the State Bank to have a credit policy. In which, the credit supply supports businesses in the process of buying rice of farmers. This is direct support for farmers and indirectly through businesses. Businesses also believe that traditional rice importers will soon sign the contract. Because along with the convenient advantage of transporting and selling, delicious quality rice grains, reasonable competitive prices, helping Vietnamese rice grain to maintain the market.

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