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According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in July 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached nearly 77 thousand tons, equivalent to 381 million USD, up 9.7% in volume, up 18.2% in turnover compared to June 2024 and prices increased by 7.8%, reaching 4,951 USD/ton.
In the first 7 months of 2024, our country exported 980 thousand tons, equivalent to nearly 3.6 billion USD, down 12.4% in volume but up 33.5% in turnover. The decrease in output but the increase in turnover caused the export price to increase by 52% compared to the first 7 months of 2023, reaching an average of 3,683 USD/ton.
Not only export prices, domestic coffee prices also witnessed a high increase, currently remaining stable in the range of 118,600-119,300 VND/kg.
Europe is still Vietnam’s largest coffee export market, with the top 3 all belonging to countries in this region.
In the first 7 months of 2024, Germany was the largest export market, reaching 121,500 tons, equivalent to 428 million USD, down 11.6% in volume, up 42.3% in value compared to the first 7 months of 2023. The average export price reached 3,521 USD/ton, up sharply by 61% over the same period.
Coffee exports to Italy ranked second in the market, reaching 91,082 tons, equivalent to 296 million USD, priced at 3,245 USD/ton, down 14.5% in volume, up 26% in turnover and up 47.3% in price compared to the first 7 months of 2023.
Spain is the third largest export market, up 17.8% in volume and 81% in value compared to the first 7 months of 2023, reaching 71,734 tons, equivalent to 273 million USD. Export price reached 3,810 USD/ton, up 54% over the same period.
In addition to the top 3, many markets also witnessed remarkable growth, in which China is a very active buyer of Vietnamese coffee.
Specifically, in July, Vietnam exported 6,022 tons of coffee to China, equivalent to 26.5 million USD, up 117% in volume and 148% in value compared to July 2023. Since the beginning of the year, the country of one billion people has spent 130 million USD to import 32,423 tons of coffee from Vietnam, up 27.2% in volume and 58.3% in value. The average export price reached 4,013 USD/ton, up 24.5% over the same period.
Coffee exports have increased sharply in recent times in general markets and the EU market in particular, as coffee businesses have focused on reforming, changing, digitizing, diversifying production of products as well as producing more refined products, with more depth and sustainable development.
In particular, with the commitment to remove tariff barriers thanks to the Vietnam – EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the opportunity to expand the Vietnamese coffee market in the EU is very potential when 93% of tax lines are 0%. Of which, the product that benefits the most is processed coffee. In addition, the EU has committed to protecting 39 Vietnamese geographical indications related to coffee.
China is also one of the fastest growing coffee markets in the world. As the number of Chinese coffee consumers continues to increase, the coffee sector will generate revenue of 15.34 billion USD in 2022. The average coffee consumption per person will reach 0.07 kg in 2022. This is a potential market for Vietnam to exploit.
However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee exports will decrease in the remaining months of the third quarter due to low supply. Coffee supply will increase again in October when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins.
In the 2023/2024 crop year, Vietnam’s coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tons – the lowest level in 4 years, down 20% compared to the 2022/2023 crop year (statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development). Coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is likely to continue to decrease due to unfavorable weather factors. Thus, if not counting the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 200,000 tons left to export from now until September.
However, the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit in terms of price. Global Robusta coffee prices will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Vietnam.
