Congthuong.vn
During the trading session on June 19, Robusta coffee prices increased 1.65%, to over 4,060 USD/ton, while Arabica coffee was on holiday. Concerns about low coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year are still a factor supporting prices. Rain returned to the main coffee growing area but could not completely overcome the damage caused by drought earlier this year. Analysts are concerned that next crop’s coffee output in our country will be low for many years.
Coffee prices will increase again, mainly due to increased concerns among investors about the supply prospects from Vietnam. Currently, hedge funds have increased their net buying position with the prediction that Robusta supply from Vietnam will continue to be scarce in the near future, the Import-Export Department forecasts.
In the context of a single market, Robusta coffee prices on the London floor increased sharply again. Strong buying force at the end of the session from speculation on the floor helped Robusta increase well. However, according to experts, all three important components of the market still hold a fairly large amount of buying positions, promising to continue liquidating their buying positions. Continued selling will shake the market for the rest of June.
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Concerned about the prospect of Robusta supply from Vietnam, export coffee prices will increase again |
Meanwhile, regarding Vietnam’s Robusta supply, many leading businesses said that the amount of goods in stock is only enough to sell until around June 2024, and cannot last until the new harvest. Drought and pests seriously affect coffee productivity in many places. Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons, the lowest in 4 years, putting pressure on Robusta supply on the world market.
Information from trading house Volcafe, Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated to reach 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather.
At the end of the first 8 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to May 2024), Vietnam has coinexport nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 80% of the current crop’s output and down 7% compared to the same period in the previous crop year.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), predicts that world coffee production in 2023/24 will increase 4.2% over the same period to 171.4 million bags, with Arabica increased by 10.7% to 97.3 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee production decreased -3.3% to 74.1 million bags. USDA’s FAS forecasts 2023/24 ending stocks will decrease 4% to 26.5 million bags from 27.6 million bags in 2022/23; Brazil’s 2023/24 Arabica coffee production will increase 12.8% over the same period to 44.9 million bags due to higher productivity and increased planting area; Coffee output in the 2023/24 crop year in Colombia, the world’s second largest Arabica coffee producer, will increase 7.5% over the same period to 11.5 million bags. According to a recent assessment of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the domestic coffee supply is currently almost exhausted, the inventories of businesses and farmers are not much, so the amount of export from now until the end of the season is limited. (September 2024) will gradually decrease even though coffee prices are anchored at record highs.
This shows supply coffeeHey There are not many left in the country from now until the new crop year. Sharing the same opinion as above, the two leading enterprises exporting raw green coffee in the Central Highlands region are Vinh Hiep Company Limited (Gia Lai province) and Dak Lak 2/9 Import-Export Company Limited ( Simexco Daklak) all said that the amount of goods in stock is only enough to sell until around June 2024, and cannot last until the new harvest. Sharing more about the phenomenon of some businesses losing heavy losses when coffee prices fluctuate sharply, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep – Director of Vinh Hiep said that short selling is the main cause of losses when assuming that the supply Vietnamese coffee is still abundant and prices will decrease, as well as the subjective belief that it is possible to find cheap coffee sources from other countries to compensate for contracts. But in reality, with low coffee prices over the past 20 years, farmers have abandoned many coffee trees, combined with the historic dryness caused by the El Nino phenomenon, causing this year’s output to plummet, pushing up coffee prices continuously. continue to break the peak.
Meanwhile, Mr. Le Duc Huy – General Director of Simexco Daklak warned that the difficulties of the old crop have not passed, the difficulties of the new crop are still continuing, due to the El Nino effect causing very high temperatures in the Central Highlands, leading to a serious situation. Severe drought, surface water has been depleted, there is not enough water to irrigate coffee gardens, current rain is still not enough, if there is not enough water for irrigation, it will be very difficult to ensure the coffee output of the crop. new.
Currently, statistics cannot be obtained, but coffee production in the 2024 – 2025 crop year will certainly not be equal to the previous crop year, so the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to prepare more defensive scenarios and control risks well. more in the new coffee crop year. According to some industry experts, in the coming time, coffee prices will likely not fluctuate as strongly as in recent months but will still maintain a high level. The reason is because Brazil is in full harvest season. Then, in October, it is the harvest season in Vietnam.
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Concerned about the prospect of Robusta supply from Vietnam, export coffee prices will increase again |
Meanwhile, regarding Vietnam’s Robusta supply, many leading businesses said that the amount of goods in stock is only enough to sell until around June 2024, and cannot last until the new harvest. Drought and pests seriously affect coffee productivity in many places. Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.47 million tons, the lowest in 4 years, putting pressure on Robusta supply on the world market.
Information from trading house Volcafe, Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated to reach 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather.
