According to congthuong.vn
At the end of the latest trading session, the price of Robusta coffee in London for delivery in July 2024 increased by 228 USD/ton, at 4,120 USD/ton, for delivery in September 2024 increased by 219 USD/ton, at 4,025 USD/ton.
Arabica coffee price for delivery in July 2024 increased by 12.7 cents/lb, at 230.95 cents/lb, for delivery in September 2024 increased by 12.45 cents/lb, at 229.8 cents/lb.
The coffee market is being supported by reports of lower-than-expected Brazilian Robusta production, while there are also concerns recent rains have not been enough to prevent crop damage in Vietnam following drought conditions. previous drought in this crop year.
In the middle of May 2024, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices recovered after falling from the previous days. Price tomato get high The sharp increase in recent times has contributed to boosting sales in the spot market, according to information from the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam.
A survey by the consulting company Safras & Mercado (a company specializing in research on global agricultural business) shows that as of May 8, Brazil has sold about 94% of Arabica coffee production in the 2023/2024 crop year. (In the same period of the 2022/2023 crop year, sales only reached 91% of output); Robusta coffee sales reached 97% of output (94% in the same period last crop year).
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), coffee prices skyrocketed 5.8%, of which Arabica prices exceeded 5,091 USD/ton, the highest in the last 5 weeks; At the same time, Robusta price hit a 1-month peak at 4,120 USD/ton.
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| Coffee prices skyrocketed 5.8%, Arabica prices exceeded 5,091 USD/ton |
MXV said that shrinking supply in main producing countries is causing concerns about coffee shortages in the market, thereby supporting prices to increase again.
In the latest report, the Brazilian government’s Crop Supply Agency CONAB lowered the country’s Robusta coffee production forecast by 600,000 bags, to 16.7 million bags. Along with that, StoneX estimates that Vietnam’s coffee output may only reach 24 million bags, which is the lowest level in the past 4 years mainly due to climate change.
On the domestic market, recorded yesterday morning (May 28), the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces simultaneously increased by 500 VND/kg, bringing the domestic coffee purchasing price to 115,700. – 117,200 VND/kg.
In the first 5 and a half months of the 23/24 season, Vietnam has exported nearly 1 million tons of coffee, an increase of 15-20% compared to previous years. Meanwhile, the Coffee and Cocoa Association expects Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2024 to decrease sharply by 20% compared to the previous year, to about 1.3 million tons.
Against this background, activity exportsloppy coffee of Brazil and Indonesia can step up when new crop supply is ready, but it is difficult to completely compensate for the shortage in Vietnam. In 2023, Brazil and Indonesia will only export about 8 million bags of Robusta, less than half the amount exported from Vietnam. Furthermore, Indonesia’s ability to boost coffee exports is uncertain when new crop output is low and old crop inventory is almost zero. Currently, this country is still actively buying coffee from Vietnam. Male.
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| Vietnam has exported nearly 1 million tons of coffee, an increase of 15-20% compared to previous years |
Analysts predict that coffee prices will likely cool down from the middle of the second quarter but are unlikely to decrease sharply. Market sentiment may be more stable when there is additional supply from Brazil and Indonesia, but the amount of goods from these two countries is not enough to compensate for Vietnam. World Robusta coffee prices are expected to rise to a record level of over 4,000 USD/ton, then there will be a downward adjustment.
