According to congthuong.vn
At the end of the trading session on May 8, Arabica coffee prices continued to recover while Robusta turned up after a series of previous days of deep decline.
Specifically, on ICE Futures Europe, the price of Robusta coffee for delivery in July 2024 increased by 36 USD/ton, at 3,414 USD/ton, for delivery in September 2024 increased by 33 USD/ton, at 3,338 USD/ton.
Similarly, on ICE Futures US, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in July 2024 increased by 0.9 cents/lb, at 197.55 cents/lb, for delivery in September 2024 increased by 0.85 cents/lb, at 196.25 cents/lb.
Arabica coffee continued to recover while Robusta turned to increase after the previous series of deep declines. Speculation on the London floor reduced selling, helping Robusta increase again.
Arabica coffee prices recovered when there was a forecast that rain in Brazil would not be enough until the end of next week. Drought conditions in Brazil could reduce coffee production in the final stage of ripening and push up coffee prices.
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| Arabica coffee prices continue to recover while Robusta coffee returns to increase after a series of deep declines. Illustration |
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Brazil will make a decision on a potential interest rate cut, with the current rate at 10.75%. It is widely expected that the central bank will cut interest rates by another 0.50%, which would be the seventh consecutive rate cut in as many months.
As a result, the Real has become more valuable after the statement of the Central Bank of Brazil and with the announcement of the US National Reserve Fed yesterday on the decision to not change or increase interest rates. also caused the USD index to decline slightly. The market recognizes that both of these things have helped reduce coffee prices under further downward pressure.
Meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that earlier this week the Minas Gerais region of Brazil had no rain, this is the second consecutive week this area has not received any rainfall.
In Vietnam, experts still predict that rainfall will be lower than average in May, which will affect coffee market prices. Normally, the rainy season in Vietnam will start in April and last until around October every year.
According to the opinion, the current general situation in the coffee market is the pressure coming from liquidating buying positions of hedge funds, when they are holding a large volume of buying positions. It cannot be ruled out that there will be short recovery periods when these funds temporarily stop liquidation. However, if there is no additional support for the market, coffee prices will tend to gradually decrease until Brazil’s official harvest date around the beginning of July every year.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), India’s coffee crop from October 2024 to September 2025 is expected to decrease by about 1.49% compared to the previous year with a total output of 5.97 million bags (60 million bags). kg/bag); Of which, 1.42 million bags of Arabica coffee and 4.55 million bags of Robusta coffee.
USDA also predicts exportu coffee from India, mainly Robusta, will reach about 4.2 million bags in the 2024/2025 crop year, down about 1.18% compared to the previous year.
According to the survey, coffee price Today in the Central Highlands region increased again after many previous consecutive days of decline. Specifically, today’s coffee price in Lam Dong increased by 1,000 VND/kg, to 95,000 VND/kg.
Coffee price today in Gia Lai increased by 1,000 VND/kg, to 95,000 VND/kg; in Dak Lak increased by 1,000 VND/kg, to 96,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, today’s coffee price in Dak Nong increased by 1,000 VND/kg, down to 96,200 VND/kg.
The domestic coffee market recovered compared to the same time yesterday. It is forecasted that coffee prices from now until the end of the year will continue to fluctuate due to the influence of weather, as well as supply from producing countries.
Commenting on coffee prices in the coming time, citing information given to the press, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai – Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) – said: “Returning to the peak price is difficult. In the future, the price may decrease but it will still be higher than the previous price, still beneficial to farmers.”
With current production costs, it is estimated that the cost of coffee for farmers is about more than 40,000 VND/kg. Therefore, the selling price of coffee must be more than 80,000 VND/kg for farmers to have good profits to stick with this crop for a long time.
According to coffee industry expert Nguyen Quang Binh, coffee prices have increased in recent times, in addition to supply and demand factors, there is also increased price speculation. Speculators come together to fix prices, creating virtual scarcity, creating a reason for the lack of coffee supply globally.
Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh said: “There is no shortage of coffee supply in the world. The countries with the world’s largest coffee supply, Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, are all forecast to have guaranteed supply, with no major fluctuations this year.”
Sharing the same opinion, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai said that the domestic coffee supply for this year’s crop is still guaranteed, although the dry weather has affected some areas, but the area is not large.
In addition, in many localities, people buy a lot of coffee varieties to replant old coffee gardens and replace ineffective agricultural products, so the area remains stable and the coffee supply remains unchanged.
