On May 8, domestic coffee prices continued to adjust down to 95,000 – 96,200 VND/kg, an average of 95,700 VND/kg, down 4,100 VND/kg compared to the previous day. Compared to the peak at the end of April (about 134,000 VND/kg), coffee price has decreased to more than 35,000 VND/kg.
Robusta coffee prices on the London floor continue to fall sharply from 152 – 165 USD/ton, depending on the term, compared to May 7. The highest is the coffee term delivered in July, at 3,378 USD/ton and the lowest is the term delivered in January 2025, at 3,128 USD/ton.
A representative of a large coffee export enterprise in the Central Highlands said that in recent times coffee prices have fluctuated so much that there are very few transactions, only units that need goods are required to buy to fulfill their commitments to customers. .
“Coffee prices have been too high recently, domestic roasters are hesitant, and exporters mainly deliver old goods that have been signed since the beginning of the season” – a representative of this business said.
According to statistics, in April, Vietnamese businesses exported 126,466 tons of Robusta coffee, with a turnover of nearly 452.6 million USD and an export unit price of 3,579 USD/ton (equivalent to 90,000 VND/kg). ).
Coffee prices fluctuate sharply in a short period of time
According to statistics, currently 80% of Vietnam’s coffee production is for export, only 20% is for domestic consumption, so the fact that domestic prices are higher than export prices reflects the unsustainability of the market.
Previously, responding to Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said there are 4 basic reasons why coffee prices have dropped sharply.
First, the El Nino phenomenon in the world’s growing regions, Brazil and Vietnam, has basically ended.
Second, Brazil, the largest coffee exporter, has begun harvesting since May. Among them, the Conilon coffee variety – similar to Vietnam’s Robusta, is forecast to have a sharp increase in output. Previously, each year Brazil exported 2-3 million bags (60 kg each) of Conilon but this year it may increase to 9-10 million bags (equivalent to 540,000 – 600,000 tons).
Third, the recent coffee price increase had the participation of speculators and large investment funds, leading to overbuying and high inventory. Now is the time for them to sell to collect money, so coffee prices are inevitable.
Fourth, the World Coffee Organization (ICO) has just released a report showing that global coffee exports in March increased by 8.1% over the same period last year. Cumulatively in the first 6 months of the 2023-2024 coffee crop, coffee exports increased by 10.4%.
This information makes the market optimistic about improved coffee supply, pulling prices down.
