Oil reached its highest level in 5 months
Crude oil prices rose about 1% to a 5-month high on expectations that oil demand will increase after positive economic news from the US and China, while OPEC+ production cuts and attacks on the oil industry. Oil refineries in Russia have tightened global supply.
Closing the April 1 session, Brent crude oil increased 0.42 USD or 0.5% to 87.42 USD/barrel, while WTI oil increased 0.54 USD or 0.7% to 83.71 USD/barrel, closing highest door since October 27, 2023.
In the US, March production increased for the first time in 1.5 years due to a strong recovery in production and an increase in new orders, but factory employment remained down due to large-scale layoffs and rising oil prices. High.
US Commerce Department data last week showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – was largely moderated in February, at the expense of Services outside housing and energy are slowing significantly.
While some analysts said a rise in manufacturing input prices could prompt the U.S. central bank to pause interest rate cuts, most analysts said the index should be moderated. PCE prices will make a rate cut in June still a possibility.
Falling interest rates reduce the cost of purchasing goods and services, which can boost economic growth and oil demand.
In China, production increased for the first time in six months, supporting oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer.
In Europe, oil demand was stronger than expected, rising 100,000 barrels a day in February, compared with forecasts for a decline of 200,000 barrels a day in 2024, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
On the supply side, leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil in May.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country’s oil companies will focus on reducing production instead of exports in the second quarter, to evenly share the production cut with other members of OPEC+.
Gold increased
Gold prices pared gains on rising USD and bond yields, after gold jumped to new highs on growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates for the first time in June.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,238.18 an ounce after hitting an all-time high of $2,265.49 earlier in the session. US gold closed up 0.9% to 2,236.5 USD/ounce.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the current view is that the Fed will likely begin cutting interest rates significantly soon before reaching its 2% inflation target. Gold tends to increase when interest rates decrease.
However, the dollar rose 0.5% to a four-month high versus rivals, making gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies, while 10-year Treasury yields also rose.
Copper prices in Shanghai increased
Copper prices in Shanghai rose as positive Chinese industrial data boosted demand prospects for the metal, but gains were limited by high stock levels.
The May copper contract on the Shanghai futures exchange closed up 1.1% to 73,100 CNY (10,110.79 USD)/ton, the price having increased 5.4% in March, the strongest month increase in 16 month.
London Metals Exchange LME is closed for the Easter holiday.
The increase comes after an official survey of factories at the weekend showed China’s manufacturing activity in March increased for the first month in six months. While growth was modest, it was also the highest PMI since March 2023, when momentum from the lifting of Covid-19-related restrictions in China began to falter.
However, rising reserves put pressure on prices this session.
Iron ore increased
Iron ore reversed the previous decline, because data showed that China’s production activities in March increased for the first time in 6 months.
The PMI index increased to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in February.
The iron ore contract for September delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, China closed up 2.6% to 768 CNY (106.23 USD)/ton. During the session, prices fell to their lowest level since March 18.
May iron ore futures in Singapore increased 0.01% to 101.05 USD/ton.
Earlier in the session, prices dropped due to supply concerns.
In Shanghai, bar steel increased by 0.2%, hot-rolled steel coil increased by 1.5%, steel wire coil decreased by 0.9% and stainless steel decreased by 0.6%.
Japanese rubber decreased
Japanese rubber prices ended a 4-day rising streak, closing down 1%, as domestic stocks weakened, although rising oil prices limited the decline.
September rubber futures contracts on the Osaka exchange closed down 3.5 JPY, or 1.07%, to 325.1 JPY (2.15 USD).
In Shanghai, rubber for the same term increased by 175 CNY to 14,780 CNY (2,044.12 USD)/ton.
Japan’s Nikkei index fell to its lowest level in two weeks, because of worries that intervention in buying the JPY will affect export profits and profits of foreign investors.
Coffee continues to increase
Arabica coffee futures for May closed up 2.95 US cents or 1.6% to 1,918 USD/lb after reaching a 2.5-week high of 1,927 USD.
Agents said that Arabica coffee prices are being positively affected by the scarce supply of robusta coffee when Vietnam and Indonesia do not provide enough products to the market and Brazil has not yet started harvesting the 2024 crop.
Coffee stocks in Japan at the end of February fell 3.3% from a year ago, to 2.44 million bags, according to data from the Japan Coffee Association.
Sugar increases
Raw sugar futures for May closed up 0.2 US cents or 0.9% to 22.72 US cents/lb, the price has reached its highest level since the end of February at 22.91 US cents.
This market focuses on Brazil and the start of this year’s sugarcane harvest.
The weather is dry in Brazil’s south-central region after last week’s rains, so many factories can begin processing sugarcane for this season.
Corn decreased due to large supplies, wheat also decreased
US grain fell due to pressure from abundant supplies, partly reducing the sharp increase last weekend after a report from the US Department of Agriculture forecasting US corn planted area was lower than expected.
Soybeans fell along with corn and wheat reflecting strong global supplies and a seasonal slowdown in U.S. export demand.
May corn futures on the Chicago exchange closed down 6-1/2 US cents to 4.35-1/2 USD/bushel.
CBOT soybean futures for May decreased 5-3/4 US cents to 11.85-3/4 USD/bushel.
Soft red winter wheat of the same term decreased by 3-1/4 to 5.57 USD/bushel.
Prices of some key items on the morning of April 2
