ICE Robusta coffee delivered in May closed the trading session on March 27 at an increase of more than 94 USD/ton – up 2.71% to 3,559 USD/ton – reaching an all-time high for futures contracts. near the.
According to Trading View, Robusta coffee prices skyrocketed after the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the 2023-2-24 crop year could decrease by 20% over the same period, to 1.336 million tons due to bad weather. Dry weather reduces coffee output.
The scarce supply of Robusta coffee from Vietnam – the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer – is the main factor causing prices to skyrocket. The General Statistics Office reported on March 6 that Vietnam’s February coffee exports decreased 32.8% monthly and 20.1% year-on-year to 160,684 tons – although total coffee exports from January to February increased 16.2% over the same period, to 398,000 tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on March 26 expected that Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year could decrease by about 20% to 1,472 million tons – the lowest in 4 years, due to drought. Marex Group forecasts that the global Robusta coffee deficit in 2024-2025 will be 2.7 million bags due to reduced production in Vietnam.
One factor that is somewhat positive for coffee prices is the recent above-average rainfall in Brazil, which has eased concerns about drought conditions.
Coffee inventories have recovered from historic lows. Robusta coffee inventories monitored by ICE on February 21 fell to a record low of 1,958 lots, then recovered to a February high of 2,998 lots.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently reported that global coffee exports in January increased 32.3% year-on-year to 12.62 million bags. From October 2023 to January 2024, exports also increased by 13.1% to more than 45 million bags.
