DXY increased sharply in the currency basket, causing most commodity prices to increase accordingly…
At the end of the weekend trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London continued the upward trend. The May delivery term increased by 31 USD, to 3,308 USD/ton and the July delivery term increased by 28 USD, to 3,211 USD/ton, quite good increases. Trading volume remains at an average level.
On the contrary, the price of Arabica coffee on ICE US – New York floor reversed and decreased. Futures for delivery in May decreased by 0.90 cents, to 182.95 cents/lb and futures for delivery in July decreased by 0.6 cents, to 181.65 cents/lb, slight decreases. Trading volume is above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 1,000 – 1,100 VND, fluctuating in the range of 92,100 – 92,800 VND/kg.
While Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange have had a technical adjustment to decrease slightly, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange have returned to an upward trend due to concerns about global supply shortages still weighing on the consumer market. Even though Brazil is about to begin harvesting a new crop this year.
According to analysts, they do not see the outlook changing at least until the end of the first half of this year. A downside for the coffee market is Rabobank’s forecast yesterday that the 2024/2025 coffee crop will have a surplus of 4.5 million bags, a sharp increase compared to the expected surplus of 500,000 bags for the 2023/2024 crop year. . Rabobank also revised down the production forecast for the 2023/2024 crop year by 3.9 million bags, down to 171.1 million bags, mainly due to the reduction in production estimates for Honduras and Indonesia.
According to consultants and analysts Safras & Mercados, it is estimated that Brazil has so far sold 55.3 million bags of coffee of all kinds, out of 85.53 million bags of last year’s harvest, slightly lower than the previous year. 5-year average. The new harvest is about to begin, which will increase sales. In particular, 11% of the potential output of the 2024/2025 crop has been sold compared to the annual average of 25% and sales of Conilon Robusta account for a higher percentage than Arabica natural.
Note, the consultant estimates that due to the La Nina forecast at the beginning of the second half of this year, this year’s winter will become more dangerous than previous years, causing production cooperatives to slow down sales, which will cause pressure on prices when entering the new crop harvest with an estimated increase in this year’s crop output.
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English (giacaphe.com)
