It is expected that in the coming weeks, world coffee prices may be under pressure as this year’s new harvest in Brazil gets closer…
For the whole week of September 2024, the London market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 alternating decreasing sessions. Robusta coffee futures for delivery in May increased by a total of 113 USD, or an increase of 3.73%, to 3,143 USD/ton, and futures for delivery in July increased by a total of 86 USD, or an increase of 2.89%, to 3,057 USD/ton. tons, pretty good increases. Trading volume is above average.
On the contrary, the New York market had 2 increasing sessions and 3 decreasing sessions. Arabica coffee futures for delivery in May did not change, still at 183.30 cents/lb and futures for July delivery increased by a total of 2.35 cents, or an increase of 1.31%, to 180.40 cents/lb. , the levels increased slightly. Trading volume is quite above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands market increased by 3,200 – 3,300 VND, fluctuating in the range of 84,800 – 85,500 VND/kg.
During the week, DXY fell 0.77% and US economic data for the first two months of the year were said to show signs of economic recession, with the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index measuring lower than expected. And it may not take long for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start cutting interest rates, and US stocks continue to rise. Speculative capital flows continue to shift away from commodity markets in general due to increased risk concerns when major central banks are likely to simultaneously slow down interest rate cuts.
World coffee prices are still concerned that supply from Asian countries will be delayed due to international shipping problems, while the weather in main production areas in Brazil is still erratic, no one is sure. get anything. The El Nino weather phenomenon is forecast to cause drought in coffee-growing countries around the Pacific rim, when the lack of rain weather is continuously warned everywhere.
World coffee futures prices are said to have had an unstable week with Arabica closing losses and Robusta rising after the General Statistics Office of Vietnam forecast that coffee exports in February decreased by nearly 20% to only 160 thousand. tons of Robusta, while Honduras exports in February increased by more than 26% to reach 932,687 bags of Arabica. However, in the coming weeks, world coffee prices may be under pressure as this year’s new harvest in Brazil approaches.
According to the January Trade Report of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee production in the 2022/2023 crop year increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags and is expected to increase by 5.8 % to 178.0 million bags in the current coffee year 2023/2024. While global consumption is expected to recover with a 2.2% increase in the 2023/2024 crop year to 177.0 million bags. Therefore, the global coffee market is expected to have a surplus of 1 million bags in the 2023/2024 coffee season.
Robusta coffee inventories issued by the London Exchange Certified and monitored, as of Friday, March 1, increased by 1,190 tons, an increase of 5.17% compared to a week earlier, to register at 24,190 tons ( about 403,167 bags, 60 kg bags), a very significant increase, mainly Cnilon Robusta coffee originating from Brazil.
English (giacaphe.com)
