According to nongnghiep.vn
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Record high price
Information from the General Department of Customs shows that, from January 1 to December 15, 2023, exportsloppy coffee of Vietnam reached about 1.5 million tons, worth 3.9 billion USD. In terms of volume, it is equivalent to the same period in 2022, but turnover increased by 11.3%.
Coffee export turnover increased significantly while export volume did not increase, thanks to this coffee price get high higher. According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in October 2023, Vietnam’s average coffee export price set a record high of 3,603 USD/ton, an increase of 40.7% compared to October 2022. In the first 11 months of 2023, our country’s average coffee export price reached 2,573 USD/ton, up 12% over the same period last year.
Vietnam’s export coffee prices have increased mainly thanks to the trend of increasing use of Robusta coffee globally. Inflation and interest rates in many major economies are increasingly high, increasing the cost of living and reducing disposable income levels for a very long time for most countries in the world.
These factors have contributed to a decline in coffee consumption as well as a decline in global green coffee exports. A report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that in the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to the end of September 2023), global green coffee exports are 123 million bags, down 5.6 % compared to the 2021-2022 crop year.
It is worth noting that while overall green coffee exports have decreased, global Robusta coffee exports have increased, as many consumers around the world switch from high-priced Arabica coffee to high-quality Robusta coffee. cheaper price. This is clearly shown through ICO data.
In the 2022-2023 crop year, global Arabica coffee exports only reached 67.05 million bags, down 10.1% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year. In contrast, Robusta coffee exports reached 43.76 million bags, an increase of 2.6%.
Consumers have strongly switched from Arabica to Robusta coffee, causing the world price of Robusta coffee to increase sharply, thereby greatly affecting the export price of coffee in Vietnam – the largest Robusta coffee producer. world.
Due to the increase in export coffee prices, domestic green coffee prices have also reached historic milestones, at one point reaching 70,000 VND/kg, an unprecedented level. It can be said that the price of green coffee in 2023 is beyond the expectations of everyone in the coffee industry, from farmers to buyers and exporters. Therefore, when the price rose above 60,000 VND/kg, most farmers did not enjoy this price because they massively sold out of coffee when the price was just over 50,000 VND/kg – a level at which farmers found it profitable. Good.
By the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year (starting from October 2023), the price of green coffee beans is still high, over 60,000 VND/kg. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group, said that in all previous coffee seasons, we have never seen a crop where the price of green coffee beans was so high at the beginning of the crop year.
Coffee prices are forecast to continue to stay high in 2024. Photo: Thanh Son.
Prices remain positive in 2024
According to many experts and coffee entrepreneurs, Vietnamese coffee prices will still have a positive outlook in 2024. First of all, as mentioned above, green coffee prices are very high from the beginning. 2023-2024 crop year, will be an important basis for coffee prices to continue to stand at high levels at the end of 2023 and early 2024. Information from coffee traders shows that, in the last days of 2023, coffee prices will Bucket coffee in the Central Highlands is at nearly 70,000 VND/kg.
On the London market, Robusta coffee trading prices in the last days of 2023 are also at a high level, at one point reaching a record level of 3,022 USD/ton. In addition to limited supply, there is also an important reason: the Asia-Europe maritime transport route through the Suez Canal was attacked by Houthi forces, causing demand for spot goods to become tense.
Mr. Do Ha Nam said that it is likely that in 2024, the price of green coffee in Vietnam will be the highest in the world. The reason is that Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output will continue to decrease, including the important reason that in many areas where durian is intercropped with coffee, farmers are cutting down coffee to turn into intercropped gardens. into a durian monoculture garden to meet regulations on granting durian growing area codes for export to China.
Therefore, if in 2023, by June there will be almost no coffee left in the population, then in 2024, it may only be April or May that this will happen. From now until April 2024, if EU coffee importers buy Robusta coffee, they can only rely on Vietnam, when other major Robusta producing countries are not yet in season.
Even when other countries harvest Robusta coffee, supplies are still limited. The Foreign Agriculture Department (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), forecasts that the total coffee output of Indonesia (the world’s 4th largest coffee producer, mainly Robusta) in the 2023 crop year- 2024 will decrease by more than 18% compared to the 2022-2023 crop year, down to 9.7 million bags. It is expected that Indonesia will prioritize raw coffee for the domestic industry, only for exporting about 5 million bags of coffee beans, a decrease of up to 35% compared to the previous crop year.
Urgently implement EUDR
On May 16, 2023, the European Commission approved the content of the Deforestation and Forest Degradation Regulation (EUDR). According to this regulation, coffee is one of the agricultural products that will not be allowed to be imported into the EU market if the product is grown on deforested land after December 31, 2020.
EUDR has taken effect since June 2023 and by the end of December 2024 will officially apply to large corporations (importing into Europe). In June 2025, it will officially apply to small and medium-sized enterprises (importing to Europe).
In order for Vietnamese coffee exports to the EU to not be affected by EUDR, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vicofa, said that in recent times, the association has had many working sessions with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the Vietnam Initiative Organization. Sustainable Trade (IDH), 4C Coffee Organization, Private Economic Development Advisory Board (Board IV) to discuss solutions to comply with regulations as well as measures to support coffee industry businesses.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has also organized many conferences to deploy EUDR, and worked directly with the Director General of the European Union Environment Department on Vietnam’s commitment to always have high responsibility for protecting nature. and protect the environment through urgent implementation of EUDR and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) according to EU regulations.
At the 27th Asian International Coffee Conference taking place in Ho Chi Minh City from December 5-6, 2023, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vicofa, said that, in the context of global coffee production trend is decreasing, the development of the global coffee industry must be associated with green growth. First of all, from the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year, the global coffee industry must have an action plan to adapt to EUDR, CBAM and EU carbon certificates. Implementing these programs step by step is to demonstrate the global coffee industry’s responsibility to protect the environment, protect nature, and minimize the impact of climate change.
