DXY’s decline on expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates has supported commodity markets in general, while drought in Brazil is still the focus of the coffee futures market at the moment…
At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London extended their increasing streak to the fourth session. The January delivery term increased by 23 USD, to 2,825 USD/ton and the March delivery term increased by 28 USD, to 2,797 USD/ton, very significant increases. Trading volume is quite above average.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York floor has a continuous increasing trend. March delivery futures increased by 1.95 cents, to 190.60 cents/lb and May delivery futures also increased by 1.95 cents, to 187.25 cents/lb, the increases are also very significant. Trading volume is quite above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 400 VND, fluctuating in the range of 65,000 – 65,900 VND/kg. Fresh coffee prices trade around 13,500 VND/kg.
Concerns about hot and dry conditions in Brazil’s main growing regions are still the focus of the market at this time.
Conab – Brasil, in its fourth survey report, the last of the season, adjusted its estimate of Brazilian output for the 2023/2024 coffee crop by 0.7 million bags, up to 55.1 million bags. coffee of all kinds, an increase of 8.2% compared to the previous crop year, despite adverse weather throughout the crop development process. According to Conab, the Arabica coffee crop, accounting for 70.7% of total production, will have 38.9 million bags, an increase of 18.9% compared to the previous harvest. Conab also expects Conilon production to reach 16.17 million bags, down 11.2% compared to the previous crop.
With the result that Vietnam’s exports in November decreased by 7.4% over the same period and the price difference was pushed up too high for spot goods, Rabobank investment bank has just warned its customers that, currently Currently, farmers of two Robusta producers in Southeast Asia are holding their goods waiting for high prices, but this is only temporary psychological effects rather than due to supply and demand. In our opinion, the first notification deadline (December 22) is only a few days away. People need to consider carefully to avoid the phenomenon of massive selling like in previous years, which will cause prices to drop dramatically.
Expectations that the Fed will soon start a cycle of interest rate cuts from the beginning of 2024 have caused DXY to continue to decline, pushing investors back to commodity markets to increase buying, causing commodity derivatives exchanges to fluctuate. strong .
English (giacaphe.com)
