Expectations that the US November employment report (ADP) published today, will influence the Fed’s interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, have encouraged funds and speculation to return to the markets. Increased commodity purchases have fueled market price increases.
At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Europe – London exchange reversed to increase. January delivery futures increased by 25 USD, to 2,589 USD/ton and March delivery futures increased by 29 USD, to 2,541 USD/ton, quite strong increases. Trading volume is quite above average.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York floor has the same increasing trend. March delivery futures increased by 2.25 cents, to 177.50 cents/lb and May delivery futures increased by 2.10 cents, to 175.65 cents/lb, quite good increases. Trading volume is above average.
The price of Central Highlands coffee today increased by 500 – 600 VND, fluctuating in the range of 60,300 – 60,800 VND/kg. Fresh coffee prices are still trading around 12,800 VND/kg.
The two coffee futures exchanges have recovered some of the losses in the previous trading session in the context that farmers are still concerned that the weather in the main Arabica growing areas in southern Brazil is still hot and dry and the weather phenomenon El Nino causes drought in the main producing countries around the Pacific rim, according to forecasts, and has also begun.
According to Barchart ICE’s change to inventory regulations is expected to add to pressure on ICE-managed inventory levels that have supported coffee prices.
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) adjusted its forecast for harvested Brazilian coffee output of the last crop by 0.7% compared to the previous forecast and by 7.6% compared to the 2022 crop. Of which, Arabica coffee output is estimated at 38.9 million bags, unchanged from the previous forecast and up 14.7% compared to last year’s crop thanks to favorable weather, even in the yearly production cycle. low quantity. Conilon Robusta coffee output is estimated at 17.4 million bags, up 2.2% compared to the previous forecast but down 5.5% compared to last year’s crop.
According to observers, international traders continue to express doubts about the survey numbers given and are still looking for more certain numbers.
DXY reversed to increase again on expectations that the US November employment report (ADP) released today will impact the Fed’s interest rate cut at next week’s meeting and encourage funds and speculation. Returning to commodity markets, increased buying has fueled market price increases.
English (giacaphe.com)
