Expected global surplus causes coffee futures prices to reverse and decline…
At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London exchange reversed and decreased. The January delivery term decreased by 21 USD, to 2,564 USD/ton and the March delivery term decreased by 41 USD, to 2,512 USD/ton, quite sharp drops. Trading volume remains well above average.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York floor has the same decreasing trend. March delivery futures decreased by 8.50 cents, to 175.25 cents/lb and May delivery futures decreased by 7.95 cents, to 173.55 cents/lb, sharp drops. Trading volume is quite above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces decreased by 400 – 500 VND, fluctuating in the range of 59,800 – 60,200 VND/kg. Fresh coffee prices trade around 12,800 VND/kg.
Coffee futures prices reversed to decline, in which Arabica coffee fell sharply due to concerns about reduced global coffee supply. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) expects global coffee production in the current crop year 2023/2024 to increase by 5.8% compared to the previous crop, to 178 million bags due to Brazil’s recent harvest. cyclical record planning “two years one” with an estimated output of 44.9 million bags, an increase of 12.8% compared to the previous crop year, thanks to increased crop area and productivity, according to USDA data. ICO also predicts that global coffee consumption in the 2023/2024 crop year will increase by 2.2% compared to the previous crop year to 177 million bags, leading to a global surplus of 1 million bags of coffee.
Robusta coffee prices are on a downward trend after observers said that the new crop harvest in Vietnam has reached more than 50% of the expected output, so the pressure to sell the new crop on the London floor is gradually increasing, causing this market to remain strong. maintain the inverse price structure, despite global demand for the coffee “rich in bitterness” still high.
The release of the US November ADP nonfarm payrolls report showed that slowing growth in job openings pushed stock markets higher, causing the DXY to lose strength and overall commodity prices to decline. because the market lacks speculative power, most notably oil prices. According to world economic experts, it is a signal of recession in the leading economy “greenback” lost strength and the market increased bets that the US Fed would start cutting interest rates.
English (giacaphe.com)
