The market last week had a lot of basic information supporting the upward price trend…
For the whole week 49, the London market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for January delivery increased by a total of 27 USD, or 1.06%, to 2,572 USD/ton, and for March delivery, it increased by a total of 57 USD, or by 2.31%, to 2,528 USD/ton. tons, the increases are very significant. Trading volume is very high above average.
Similarly, the New York market also had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. Arabica coffee futures for March delivery increased by a total of 16.20 cents, or 9.63%, to 184.35 cents/lb and for May delivery, by a total of 15.10 cents, or by 9.06%. %, to 181.70 cents/lb, very strong increases. Trading volume remains well above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands market increased by 700 – 800 VND, fluctuating in the range of 59,900 – 60,400 VND/kg.
ICE inventory reports on both exchanges continue to fall sharply and weather forecast information in the main coffee growing regions in southern Brazil is still hot and dry, which is the main driving force driving the market price up, despite forecasts. Brazilian output next crop will reach a record level due to the cycle “every two years” for high output.
According to global consulting company Hedgepoint Global Markets, the earliest forecast that Brazilian coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is likely to increase by 11.62% compared to the current crop, to a record level of 74. 23 million bags, including 48.31 million bags of Arabica and 25.93 million bags of Conilon Robusta.
Consulting and analysis company Safras & Mercados forecasts that Brazilian coffee production in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated at about 69 – 71 million bags, an increase of 6.5% compared to the current crop year, of which Arabica output is about 46 – 47 million bags, compared to 43.5 million bags and Conilon Robusta about 23 – 24 million bags, compared to 23.15 million bags.
According to Wall Street investors, the reported decline in inflation in two major economies, the EU and the US, has reinforced increased optimism about interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the US third quarter GDP report grew above expectations, prompting funds and speculation to return to commodity markets to increase buying.
The General Statistics Office of Vietnam estimates that coffee exports in November reached about 80,000 tons, down 37.93% over the same period last year, bringing exports in the first 11 months of the year to 1.34 million tons, down 14,000 tons. 86% over the same period, also contributing to supporting the upward price trend.
After applying a new Arabica inventory management method to limit the phenomenon of stock turning to increase prices by speculators, ICE inventory continued to decline, showing a shortage of supply in the short and medium term despite exports. Exports from Central American countries, which account for a large volume of ICE Certified inventory, increased significantly.
According to observers, rainy weather forecasts in the main coffee growing regions in southern Brazil will be closely watched by speculators from early December because it will determine the trend of futures markets. this month.
Inventories of Robusta coffee issued by the London Exchange Certified and Monitored, as of Friday, December 1, decreased by 3,390 tons, or 7.94% compared to a week earlier, to register at 39,280 tons ( about 654,667 bags, 60 kg bags), mainly coffee originating from Brazil.
English (giacaphe.com)
