Basic information shows that negative factors are dominating the market in the short term…
At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Europe – London floor dropped for the third consecutive session. January delivery futures decreased by 23 USD, to 2,482 USD/ton and March delivery futures decreased by 16 USD, to 2,421 USD/ton, very significant reductions. Trading volume remains above average.
Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US – New York floor returned to a downward trend. March delivery futures decreased by 2.60 cents, to 168.55 cents/lb and May delivery futures decreased by 2.70 cents, to 167.70 cents/lb, very significant decreases. Trading volume is below average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces decreased by 400 – 500 VND, fluctuating in the range of 58,100 – 58,600 VND/kg.
The latest report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted the output forecast of the main producing countries in the new coffee crop year 2023/2024. According to FAS, Brazil’s 2023/2024 coffee production decreased slightly by 0.15% compared to the previous forecast, down to 66.3 million bags of all types due to the “two-year” cycle for low productivity, but Therefore, it is still 5.91% higher than the 2022/2023 crop year due to increased productivity and planted area and 14.11% higher than the 2021/2022 crop year in the same cycle affected by frost. According to FAS, natural Arabica coffee production increased by 12.81% to 44.9 million bags and Conilon Robusta coffee production decreased by 6.14% to 21.4 million bags. It is forecasted that Brazil will export 39.5 million bags of coffee of all kinds, an increase of 22.67%, or an increase of 7.3 million bags compared to the current crop year 2022/2023.
FAS also adjusted the forecast for Colombia’s high-quality wet-processed Arabica coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop year, down slightly by 0.86% compared to the previous forecast to 11.5 million bags due to too much rain, although So this forecast shows that output will still increase by 7.48% compared to the previous 2022/2023 crop year. It is forecasted that Colombia will export 10.8 million bags, an increase of 12.5% compared to the previous crop year.
In addition to the October coffee export report from Uganda, the world’s fourth largest Robusta producer, increased 3.35% over the same period last year, to a total of 470,080 bags, of which Robusta coffee exports reached 410,113 bags, an increase of 3.42% and Arabica coffee exports reached 59,967 bags, an increase of 2.86%. Robusta coffee inventory data monitored by ICE – London in the first 2 days of the week increased by 1,250 tons, or 3.25%, to 39,740 tons (equivalent to 622,333 bags, 60 kg bags), mainly due to Conilon Robusta coffee originates from Brazil.
According to the Weather Forecast Service of the US National Meteorological Center, in the coming days the main coffee growing regions in southern Brazil will receive significant rainfall. With the leading Robusta producer harvesting a new crop, this will continue to be a factor in the downward trend in coffee prices in the short and medium term.
English (giacaphe.com)
