Oil fell to its lowest level in 4 months
Oil prices fell about 5% to a four-month low, as investors worried about world oil demand after weak data from the US and Asia.
Closing the session on November 16, Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76 USD or 4.6% to 77.42 USD/barrel. WTI oil fell 3.76 USD or 4.9% to 72.90 USD/barrel. Both types of oil were previously at their lowest levels since July 7 at 76.6 USD/barrel and 72.16 USD/barrel.
The number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high last week, indicating continued poor labor market conditions. The report followed other data showing US retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in October as auto sales and hobby spending fell.
OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both predicted tight supplies in the fourth quarter, but US data showed inventories rose last week.
Meanwhile, predictions of a slowdown in China’s oil refining activities also affect investors. Refining activity fell in October from the previous month’s high as industrial fuel demand fell and refining margins narrowed.
However, China’s economic activity increased in October as industrial output increased at a faster pace and retail sales growth exceeded expectations.
Gold increased more than 1%
Gold prices rose more than 1% as the USD and US Treasury yields fell after the country’s weekly unemployment claims increased more than expected, making it more certain that the Fed will end its interest rate hike cycle. capacity.
Spot gold rose 1.2% to a 10-day high of $1,983.29/ounce, on track for its strongest daily gain in a month. US gold futures in December also closed up 1.2% to 1,987.3 USD/ounce.
Traders see 2-in-3 odds that a rate cut won’t happen before May 2024. Gold rose more than 7% in October on safe haven demand amid the Middle East conflict.
Copper retreated after hitting a 6-week high
Copper prices fell back from a six-week high on worries about demand in the world’s top metal consumer, China, and after prices failed to sustain above a key technical level.
Copper delivered after 3 months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased 0.4% to 8,233 USD/ton after touching 8,321.5 USD/ton, the highest since October 2.
The metal’s price initially rose as falling reserves and a weaker USD triggered a flurry of buying and pushed prices above 100-day resistance at $8,285/tonne.
The LME exchange’s copper reserves are rising, but the latest figures from the exchange show a decrease of 2,300 tonnes to 181,950 tonnes.
Worried about demand in China, which accounts for nearly half of global copper consumption, as new home prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in October.
Analysts expect rising mining output to leave a global surplus of 112,000 tons this year, rising to 302,500 tons in 2024, according to a Reuters poll.
Dalian iron ore decreased
Dalian iron ore prices fell as Chinese authorities intervened to control rising prices and weak real estate data raised concerns about demand from this important steel consuming sector.
Iron ore delivered in January 2024 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, China closed down 1.5% to 956 CNY (131.77 USD)/ton, after increasing 1% in the previous session.
In Singapore, iron ore delivered in December increased 0.1% to 130.04 USD/ton.
The state-backed Dalian Commodity Exchange has set a daily trading volume limit for iron ore futures of no more than 500 lots for contracts delivered from January to May 2024.
China’s new home prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in October, as government support measures did little to change the gloom for the country’s consumers and debt-ridden real estate sector. debt.
Crude steel output also fell for the fourth consecutive month in October, as more mills carried out blast furnace maintenance amid falling profits and disappointing demand during the peak consumption season.
In Shanghai, rebar increased by 1.3%, hot-rolled steel coil increased by 1.1%, steel wire coil increased by 1.9% and stainless steel increased by 0.1%.
Japanese rubber highest in a month
Japanese rubber prices rose to a one-month high amid speculation of raw material shortages in Thailand and optimism about China’s economic data.
The April 2024 rubber futures contract on the Osaka exchange closed up 3.5 JPY or 1.3% to 273.9 JPY (1.81 USD)/kg.
In Shanghai, rubber delivered in January 2024 increased by 155 CNY or 1.7% to a 3-week high of 14,585 CNY (2,010.31 USD)/ton.
Speculations about reduced raw material supplies in Thailand have driven up prices. While it is true that available supplies are limited, the situation is not as dire as it may appear.
Coffee and sugar mixed together
Arabica coffee futures for March 2024 closed down 3.95 US cents or 2.3% to 1.7120 USD/lb after reaching the highest level in nearly 5 months at 1.7635 USD/lb.
The market is also underpinned by tight supply, with exchange reserves falling below 300,000 barrels this week for the first time in 24 years.
Robusta coffee futures in January 2024 increased by 17 USD or 0.7% to 2,566 USD/ton after setting a two-month high at 2,594 USD/ton.
Coffee prices in Vietnam increased this week as supplies from the new crop have not yet been harvested due to heavy rain in key growing areas in recent weeks, disrupting coffee picking.
Farmers in the Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee growing province, are selling coffee at 58,500 – 59,400 VND (2.41 – 2.45 USD)/kg, higher than 57,200 – 58,600 VND a week ago.
Traders offered to sell type 2 robusta coffee with 5% black and broken beans at the same price as the January 2024 futures contract price in London.
Another trader also in this area offered to sell with a discount of 40 – 50 USD/ton compared to the contract in London. This person said the amount of coffee is limited but farmers are selling a little at a time. Clearly not a good harvest, rain disrupted operations.
In Indonesia, Sumatra robusta coffee was offered at an additional 720 USD/ton this week compared to the contract delivered in January and February 2024, an increase of 20 USD compared to last week.
Raw sugar futures for March 2024 closed up 0.04 US cents or 0.15% to 27.19 US cents/lb while white sugar for the same period decreased 0.9 USD or 0.1% to 733.7 USD/ton.
Asian rice prices increased due to strong demand
Rice prices rose in most Asian hubs this week, export prices of parboiled rice in India increased on a slight improvement in demand, while rising supplies from the new crop limited the increase.
Indian 5% broken parboiled rice was offered at 493 – 503 USD/ton this week compared to 490 – 500 USD a week ago.
Last month, India extended rice export restrictions with a 20% tax on parboiled rice until March 2024.
In Bangladesh, domestic rice prices increased this week despite good output and reserves, affecting consumers who are already struggling because of high inflation.
The price of Thai 5% broken rice is offered at 570 – 575 USD/ton, up from 562 USD a week ago.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association raised its export forecast to 8.5 million tons this year, up from a previous forecast of 8 million tons.
The price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is offered at 650 – 655 USD/ton, unchanged from a week ago, and domestic supply remains low.
According to preliminary data, rice exports from Ho Chi Minh City port in the first 14 days of November reached 215,967 tons, mostly exported to Africa, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Wheat and soybeans decreased, corn increased
Wheat prices on the Chicago exchange closed down due to weak US demand. Soft red winter wheat for December delivery closed down 7 US cents to 5.53-1/2 USD/bushel. Prices have dropped to their lowest level since October 2.
Soybeans fell 1.8% as forecasts of rain in Brazil eased supply concerns.
CBOT soybeans for January 2024 futures decreased by 24-3/4 US cents to 13.60-1/4 USD/bushel.
Chicago corn increased due to a US government report showing weekly export sales higher than forecast.
CBOT corn futures for December closed up 4 US cents to 4.74-3/4 USD/bushel.
Prices of some key commodities on the morning of November 17
