According to information from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, coffee prices are at the highest level in the past 30 years, approximately 70,000 VND/kg of green coffee in raw material areas, but Vietnamese coffee is increasing. Out of stock for sale.
Specifically, the amount of coffee exported from August and September is gradually decreasing compared to the same period last year and is expected to continue to decrease. Coffee is currently at the end of the season, so even if businesses want to buy it, they still don’t have the goods.
According to experts, in macro terms, there are two main reasons why export coffee prices increase. First, US inflation reports have slowed down and there is speculation that the US Federal Reserve (FED) may temporarily stop raising interest rates. This is the factor that pushes funds and speculation to return to the buying market after aggressively liquidating for the previous two consecutive weeks. Therefore, funds and speculation buy strongly when financial factors are more positive. In addition, the lack of supply is one of the reasons why exported coffee prices increased.
Vietnamese coffee is out of stock even though export prices have increased. Illustration.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, if the amount of coffee exported in the last months of the year is equal to the same period last year and the export price is equal to the first months of the year, the amount of coffee exported in 2023 will reach about 1. 7 million tons, worth 4.2 billion USD. This will be a new record turnover level for the Vietnamese coffee industry.
To ensure coffee prices remain high, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has approved the “Project for Developing Vietnamese Specialty Coffee for the period 2021-2030” with the goal of reaching the area by 2025. Specialty coffee accounts for 2% of the total area, meaning output is at 5,000 tons and increasing to 3% and 11,000 tons in 2030, respectively.
