Stocks dropped, long-term Treasury bond yields adjusted down, and speculative capital flowed strongly to commodity exchanges, supporting coffee prices on both exchanges to increase sharply during the past week…
For the whole week 42, the London market had 5 consecutive increasing sessions. Robusta coffee futures for January delivery increased a total of 195 USD, or an increase of 8.54%, to 2,479 USD/ton and futures for March delivery also increased a total of 195 USD, or an increase of 8.76%, to 2,422 USD. /ton, extremely strong increases. Trading volume is very high above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 1 down session at the beginning of the week and 4 consecutive up sessions right after that. Arabica coffee futures for delivery in December increased by a total of 10.35 cents, or 6.68%, to 165.25 cents/lb and futures for delivery in March 2024 increased by 9.25 cents, or an increase of 5.96 cents. %, to 164.40 cents/lb, very strong increases. Trading volume is very high above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 4,000 – 4,200 VND, down to 59,300 – 59,900 VND/kg.
The highlight of the week was export reports from major producing countries showing that supply has not shown signs of improvement. The Brazilian trade agency reported that total coffee exports of all kinds in September were estimated at 3,098 million bags, up 5.4% over the same period last year, bringing coffee exports of all kinds in the first 9 months of 2023 to a total of 3.098 million bags. plus 24.759 million bags, down 7.9% over the same period last year. The Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) in Brazil expects October exports to decrease by up to 20% over the previous month due to transportation problems. transporting goods to the port and lacking containers to pack goods for delivery to ships. Colombia reported that exports in September increased by 1.3% over the same period last year (FNC – Colombia did not release data for August), expecting this year’s output to increase because the weather is no longer as rainy as last year.
According to data reported by the General Department of Vietnam Customs, coffee exports in September only reached 50,967 tons (about 89,450 bags, 60 kg bags), down 39.79% compared to the previous month. Therefore, coffee exports for the 2022/2023 crop year totaled 1,664,374 tons (about 27.74 million bags), down 4.45% compared to the previous crop year. Along with storms and rains, the new crop’s harvest has been delayed, causing Southeast Asian traders who want to buy Robusta coffee from Vietnam and Indonesia to push the price difference (Dif.) up to 400 – 480 USD/ton.
Speculation that the Fed will maintain high interest rates until mid-2024 and does not rule out raising interest rates at the final meeting this year has caused funds and speculation to continue to price prices in commodities in general. .
Robusta coffee inventories issued by the London Exchange Certified and monitored, as of Friday, October 20, decreased by 3,810 tons, or 9.60% compared to a week earlier, down to registration at 35,860 tons ( about 597,667 bags, 60 kg bags), the lowest level in 10 weeks, supported London coffee futures prices to recover strongly at the end of the week.
Anh Van (giacaphe.com)
