Source: Vneconomy
According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, rice exports in April reached 1.1 million tons, with a value of 573.9 million USD, bringing the total volume and value of rice exports in the first 4 months of 2023 to reach 2.95 million tons, worth $1.56 billion, up 43.6% in volume and 54.5% in value over the same period in 2022. This is the highest growth rate among product groups. main agricultural products.
RICE EXPORTS TO INDONESIA SURPRISE
Regarding the export market in the first 4 months of 2023, the Philippines is still the largest customer of Vietnamese rice. By the end of April 2023, the export value of rice to this market reached US$647.5 million, up 53.4% over the same period last year and accounting for 42.4% of the total export value. China ranked second with a turnover of 292.5 million USD, up 88.2% over the same period last year.
Notably, for Indonesia, if in the whole year of 2022, Vietnam’s rice exports to this market only reach 58 million USD, in the first 4 months of 2023, this number has reached 149 million USD, a sudden increase of 2,514 % compared with the same period last year.
Regarding the export price of rice, data from the General Department of Customs shows that, in April 2023, the average export price of rice from Vietnam has increased to the highest level in the past 10 years. The average export price of rice in the first 4 months of 2023 is estimated at 526 USD/ton.
Meanwhile, rice prices in Thailand and India both tend to increase until the middle of the month, then turn down towards the end of the month. The price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is offered at 495-500 USD/ton, an increase of 50 USD/ton compared to March 2023. In India, 5% broken parboiled rice is currently at $382-388/ton, down from $385-392/ton in mid-April 2023. Indian rice prices fell due to the depreciation of the rupee, while export demand was quite stable. In Thailand, the price of 5% broken standard rice was at $480/ton, down $10 from $485-490/ton in mid-April 2023, but up $17/ton from the average. March.
THE WORLD MAY LOOK 8.7 MILLION TONS OF RICE
The April 2023 report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for global rice production in the 2022-2023 crop year to 509.4 million tons, down 4.4 million tons from the 2021-2022 crop year. . Meanwhile, global rice consumption is forecast to increase by 0.9 million tons to a record 520 million tons.
Analysis by Fitch Solutions Bank (a major US statistical rating organization) shows that the global rice supply is extremely stressed due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the weather destroying crops. in the world’s leading rice-producing economies. The Fitch Solutions report predicts that the global rice market will be short of 8.7 million tonnes in the 2022-2023 crop year, the highest level since 2003-2004, when the shortfall stood at 18.6 million ton.
“Rice production is falling everywhere from China, Pakistan to the US, to the European Union (EU), creating a price burden for more than 3.5 billion consumers globally. The Asia-Pacific region is most affected because it is home to 90% of the world’s rice,” the Fitch Solutions report states.
Charles Hart, commodity analyst at Fitch Solutions, said that at the global level, the most obvious impact of the rice shortage is that rice prices are at a 10-year high and are expected to stay around that level. this until 2024.
According to a report by Fitch Solutions, the average rice price has been at $17.3/cwt (1cwt is close to 50 kg) so far this year, and will not drop to $14.50/cwt until 2024. “As rice is a staple food staple in many markets in Asia, rice prices are a key determinant of food inflation and food security,” said Charles Hart.
According to Oscar Tjakra, senior analyst at global food and agriculture bank Rabobank, this shortage will push up the cost of rice imports, affecting major rice importing countries, including the United States. Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and African countries in 2023…
