Source: mekongasean.vn
According to data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the total amount of coffee exports in the 2021-2022 crop year is about 1.7 million tons, including arabica and finished products, up 13% compared to the previous year. in the previous crop year as prices on the London Stock Exchange remained high, prompting people to sell.
In addition, in the last crop year, Vietnam’s robusta coffee was not competitive from the same product of Brazil due to a decrease in the country’s output. In the last year, Intimex Group is the largest coffee exporter in the country, followed by Vinh Hiep and Company 2/9.
The total amount of green coffee used for domestic production and processing is estimated at 300,000 tons, of which 130,000 tons are used for roasting and 170,000 tons are used for processing instant coffee. In the first 6 months of the crop, exports continuously increased (from February 2022) with a total volume of nearly 1 million tons, accounting for 55% of the total export volume of the whole season.
However, in the last 6 months, export volume decreased because people only sold at high prices. In the last few months of the crop, Vietnam also faced competition from Indonesian robusta coffee offered at lower prices. Accordingly, in the period of June to September, Indonesia is in season, the price of Robusta is 100-200 USD/ton cheaper than Vietnam, making the demand to buy from Vietnam drop sharply.
Shifting the proportion of coffee exports between countries
According to the World Coffee Organization (ICO), global instant coffee exports in October continued to increase by 10.9% year-on-year to 1.2 million bags. The share of instant coffee in total global coffee exports increased to 9.5% from 8.9% in the same period last year. Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of instant coffee, exported 291,345 bags to the international market in October, down 6.2% year-on-year.
However, the export volume of instant coffee of the following two countries, India and Indonesia, increased by 25% and 33.7%, reaching 180,000 bags and 397,805 bags, respectively. In October, coffee exports of the South American region decreased slightly by 0.2% compared to the same period last year, to nearly 5 million bags.
In Asia and Oceania, exports from this region increased slightly by 10,000 bags to 3.2 million bags. However, exports of countries in the region had mixed fluctuations as India and Indonesia increased by 15.1% and 34.5% respectively, while Vietnam decreased by 19.5%.
Coffee exports from Africa reached 1.1 million bags in October, down 2.4% year-on-year. In which, the two main producing and exporting countries in the region, Ethiopia and Uganda, decreased by 10.9% and 6% respectively.
In contrast, an increase was recorded in a few other countries such as Burundi (316.7%), Ivory Coast (83.2%), and Kenya (46.3%). However, the growth rates of these three countries mainly came from the low base of the same period last year.
World coffee supply in the crop year 2022/2023 may have an excess of 4.9 million bags
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee production from October 2022 to September 2023 at 172.80 million bags, 4% higher than the previous year.
Along with that, the estimated production in Brazil for the coffee crop year July 2022 to June 2023 will be 7.8% higher than the previous coffee crop, for a total of 62.6 million. bags in the 2022/23 crop year.
USDA also forecast that global coffee demand in the crop year from October 2022 to September 2023 may reach 167.90 million bags, up 0.48% from the previous year. The latest forecast shows the possibility of a global coffee supply surplus of about 4.9 million bags.
