There is an opinion that the Fed’s continued tightening of monetary policy will contribute to a more serious world economic recession due to a decrease in purchasing power in general…
Robusta London chart January 2023 week 42 (from October 17, 2022 to October 22, 2022)
For the whole week 42, the London market had 2 increasing sessions and 3 decreasing sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for November delivery fell by all 60 USD, or 2.91%, to 2,060 USD/ton, and for January 2023 delivery, all decreased by 55 USD, or 2.68%, and USD 2,051/ton, the reductions are quite strong. Trading volume remained very high above average.
In contrast, the New York market had 5 consecutive losing sessions throughout the week. The price of Arabica coffee for December delivery fell all of 5.80 cents, or 2.95%, to 190.90 cents/lb, and for March delivery, it fell all of 7.20 cents, ie. down 3.73%, to 185.80 cents/lb, sharp declines. Trading volume remained very high above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased from 1,200 to 1,300 dong, to range from 43,600 to 44,000 dong/kg.
Highlights of the week of liquidation, net position adjustment of Commodity and Speculative Funds before the expiration date of November futures and the first notice date (FND) on both exchanges is approaching .
According to observers, economic indicators have been reported to show that US inflation is still high, there is a basis for the Fed to raise more USD interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting. However, there have been many opinions that a “green silver coin” too strong will make it difficult for the consumer markets because the price of goods in general will be too expensive, reducing purchasing power, invisibly contributing to a more serious world economic recession. This will keep the risk aversion high.
The resignation of the new British Prime Minister after only 45 days in office contributed to the leading financial market crisis “old continent” causing the value of the pound to drop to a low “never seen” and pushed UK inflation into double digits, in the context of the gas and energy crisis still weighing heavily after OPEC + announced a cut in crude oil production by 1 million b/d and the war between Russia and Ukraine. still fierce, continuing to push the European Union (EU) close to the brink of recession.
Consulting and analysis firm Safras & Mercados has revised down its forecast for Brazilian coffee production in 2022, which has just finished harvesting from an initial estimate of 61.1 million bags to 57.3 million bags, including 34 ,6 million bags of Arabica coffee and 22.7 million bags of Conilon Robusta.
A continued depreciation of the reais will encourage Brazilians to boost sales of new crop exports as they will earn more local currency.
As of Monday, October 17, inventories of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by the London floor have decreased by another 4,500 tons, or 4.8% from a week earlier, to registered at 89,340 tons. (equivalent to 1,489,000 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
