Risk aversion increased when major central banks in the world simultaneously tightened monetary policies to prevent a global economic recession and excessive inflation.
Robusta London chart November 2022, week 38 (from September 19, 2022 to September 24, 2022)
For the whole week of 38, the London market had 5 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for November delivery increased by all 30 USD, or 1.36%, to 2,232 USD/ton, and for January delivery in 2023, it also increased by 30 USD, or 1.37%. to $2,219/ton, very significant increases. Trading volume remain below average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for December delivery increased all of 5.35 cents, or 2.49 percent, to 220.45 cents/lb, and for March delivery, it increased all of 4.35 cents, or up. 2.07%, to 214.10 cents/lb, fairly strong gains. Trading volume quite below average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 400-500 VND, up to range from 47,700 to 48,200 VND/kg.
The highlight of the week was the news that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to raise the basic USD interest rate by 0.75% to 3 – 3.25%/year, the highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of Brazil also raised the basic interest rate of the Reais by 0.25% to 13.75%/year and many major central banks in the world also contributed to prevent inflation. The global overshoot has put pressure on most markets, even though it is well-aware that a drastic tightening of monetary policy will contribute to the inevitable global recession.
The Agricultural Product Forecasting and Supply Company (Conab) under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture has released its third coffee crop survey report. Accordingly, they have reduced 3.6 million bags compared to the previous survey. That fell to 50.38 million bags in the current coffee year 2022/2023 due to adverse weather. In which, Arabica coffee reached 32.41 million bags, up 3.1% compared to the previous crop and Conilon Robusta coffee was unchanged from the previous forecast at a record 18 million bags, up 10.2% compared to the previous crop. before.
This year, the Brazilian coffee tree should have a cyclical season “two years one” But last year’s dry weather and frosts reversed this cycle, Conab said.
The General Department of Vietnam Customs reported that coffee exports in the first half of September reached 38,756 tons (equivalent to 645,933 bags), bringing exports in the first 8.5 months of 2022 to 1,287,580 tons (about 21.46 million bags). , an increase of 13.54% over the same period last year.
As of Monday, September 19, the inventory of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by the London floor has increased by 3,290 tons, or 3.70% compared to a week earlier, to registered inventories at the level. 92,140 tons (equivalent to 1,559,667 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
