Arabica coffee term 12/2022 (KCEZ22) reversed to increase and recovered after many previous deep decline sessions, up 1.55 cents (+0.72%), closing price of the old session at 216.40 cents/lbs.
The dollar continued to act as a place to attract speculative money yesterday when the US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims in August were both better than the previous month. More than 80% of investors bet an upcoming rate increase of 0.75%, the rest even expect an even higher increase of 1%. The Real fell 1.15% against the USD, 1 USD = 5.2390 BRL. This exchange rate stimulates producers to boost sales when the coffee harvest in Brazil has reached more than 98%. It should be noted that in addition to the Fed and USD interest rates, next week Brazil’s Central Bank Coporn will also have a meeting to manage interest rates. These are all factors that will strongly affect the price of Arabica coffee in particular and coffee on both floors in general.
Forecasts of rains next week in Brazil’s coffee growing regions help support Arabica coffee prices. In addition, the New York floor standard coffee inventory as of September 13 decreased to 585,215 bags. The above information has helped Arabica escape from the general decline in price affected by the strong USD.
According to technical analysis, the technical indicators are showing signs that the price still has bearish momentum. The next support the price can test is 208-210. Currently, there is still no signal of a recovering correction, so customers should limit catching new buying bottoms when the price is still in a downtrend. The price needs to increase, recover and maintain above the 225 zone to temporarily break the downtrend of the price.
HINTS BUY/SELL STRATEGY IN THE Session (refer).
NEW BUYING CL:
- Support zone 1: 212.5 – 213 cents
- Support zone 2: 211-211.5 cents
- Stop Loss: 208 cents
CL SELL DOWN:
- Resistance zone 1: 220 – 220.5 cents
- Resistance zone 2: 224.5-225 cents
- Stop Loss: 228 cents
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