The possibility that the Fed will “Eagle” More at the upcoming policy sessions, the price of coffee in New York dropped again in 2 solo sessions at the end of the week…
Robusta London chart July 2022, week 22 (from May 30, 2022 to June 4, 2022)
For the whole week 22, the London market had 3 consecutive gaining sessions and 2 rest sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for spot delivery in July increased all by 39 USD, or 1.86%, to 2,136 USD/ton and for September delivery increased all by 43 USD, or 2.05%, to 2,139 USD. /ton, the increases are very significant. Trading volume below average.
In contrast, the New York market had 2 gaining sessions, 2 decreasing sessions and 1 holiday session. The price of Arabica coffee for July delivery increased by all 2.95 cents, or 1.29%, to 232.40 cents/lb and for September delivery, it increased by 2.85 cents, or 1. 24%, to 232.55 cents/lb, very significant gains. Trading volume very high above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 700-800 VND, up to range from 41,600 to 42,100 VND/kg.
The exchange rate of the reais weakened again in the last two sessions of the week, prompting Brazilians to strongly sell the new crop, causing the price of coffee futures on the New York floor to slow down.
Highlights of the week are Trade Report May of the International Coffee Organization (ICO).
According to the ICO, global coffee exports in April only reached a total of 10.93 million bags of coffee of all kinds, down more than 2.83% compared to the same period last year. This has contributed to a cumulative increase in global coffee exports in the first seven months of the current coffee crop year 2021/2022, up 0.64% year-on-year, to a total of 78.02 million bags. .
The ICO has also maintained its forecast for global coffee supply for the current coffee year 2021/2022 at 167.20 million bags, down more than 2.10% from the previous crop. At the same time, the ICO also maintains its forecast that global coffee consumption in the current coffee crop 2021/2022 will increase by 3.30% compared to the previous crop year, to a total of 170.30 million bags.
Consultant – Analyst Safras & Mercado It is estimated that nearly 18% of Brazil’s new crop has already been harvested. The pace of this year’s harvest is somewhat slower than the 5-year average for the same period, at approximately 23%. Based on a forecast for the new crop at 61.10 million bags, Safras has estimated that 11 million bags of the new crop have been harvested to date, of which an estimated 6 million bags of Conilon Robusta and about 5 million bags of Arabica coffee have been harvested. Harvesting is expected to begin ramping up when the weather is favorable again.
Notably in the last 2 sessions of the week, the London Robusta market closed with 2 Spring Bank holidays (Spring bank holiday) and the Queen’s 70th Anniversary Holiday (Platinum Jubie), leaving the New York Arabica market alone with 2 consecutive declines due to concerns about the risks of the Eastern European war causing the world economic recession and increasing global inflation, will lead to the possibility that the Fed will “Eagle” more at upcoming policy meetings, causing speculators to continue to liquidate their net buying positions in previous consecutive gaining sessions.
English (giacaphe.com)
