Can coffee exports maintain growth momentum in the second quarter?

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Source: vietnambiz.vn

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in April, Vietnam exported 157.45 thousand tons of coffee, worth 362.3 million USD, down 25.4% in volume and 23.6% in value. Prices compared to March, compared to April 2021, increased 19.2% in volume and 47% in value.

In the first 4 months of 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 739 thousand tons, worth 1.66 billion USD, up 26.2% in volume and 57% in value over the same period in 2021.

Amount of coffee exported over the months in the period of 2020 – 2022 (Unit: thousand tons, source: Import-Export Department)

In April, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee reached $2,301 per ton, up 2.3% compared to March and 23.4% compared to April 2021. Generally, in the first four months of 2022, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee reached $2,245 per ton, up 24.5% over the same period in 2021.

Evolution of the average export price of coffee over the months in the period 2020 – 2022 (Unit: USD/ton, source: Import-Export Department)

In April compared to April 2021, Vietnam’s coffee exports to most of the main markets increased, except for the Philippines, which decreased sharply.

Notably, coffee exports to Belgium increased by 144.4 percent in volume and 218.3% in value. In the first 4 months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, coffee exports to most markets increased, except for the Philippines. Notably, coffee exports to the markets of Belgium, the UK, and the Netherlands grew by three figures.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that in the second quarter of this year, Vietnam’s coffee exports will continue to increase thanks to abundant supply and free trade agreements, creating a competitive advantage for Vietnamese coffee.

However, after a sharp increase in coffee prices in the first months of 2022, in March and April, coffee prices tend to decrease due to the pressure of abundant supply and reduced demand in the short term due to high inflation. .

The domestic coffee market was quite quiet in April. The price dropped to a low level, while the price of fertilizer materials increased. On April 28, the price of robusta coffee in Vietnam decreased by 1,100 VND/kg compared to March 29, to the lowest level of 39,700 VND/kg in Lam Dong province; the highest level of 40,300 VND/kg in Dak Lak province.

However, in the long-term, coffee prices are forecasted to have many supporting factors, especially supply and demand prospects.

Recently, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasted global coffee production in the 2021-2022 crop year to reach 167.2 million bags, down 2.1% from 170.8 million bags in the previous crop year.

While global consumption is expected to reach 170.3 million bags (60 kg grade), an increase of 3.3% from 164.9 million bags in the 2020-2021 crop year. With this forecast, the global coffee market is expected to have a deficit of about 3.1 million bags in the 2021-2022 crop year.



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