Coffee futures prices are mixed in the face of short-term supply pressure and heightened risk aversion as the war in Eastern Europe continues…
Robusta London chart May 2022, week 14 (from 04/04/2022 – 09/04/2022)
For the whole week 14, London market had 4 consecutive decreasing sessions and 1 gaining session at the end of the week. The price of Robusta coffee for May delivery fell by all 48 USD, or 2.24%, to 2,091 USD/ton and for July delivery fell all 34 USD, or 1.60 %, to 2,096 USD. /ton, the reductions are very significant. Trading volume on average.
Similarly, the New York market had 2 decreasing sessions and 3 increasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for May delivery increased all 3.25 cents, or 1.42 percent, to 231.65 cents/lb, and for July delivery, all 3.10 cents, or 1. 36%, to 231.55 cents/lb, very significant gains. Trading volume very high above normal.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased from 500 to 600 VND, to range from 40,100 to 40,700 VND/kg.
Coffee futures prices rebounded in the last session of the week after heavily speculating on liquidating previous net positions due to the expiration of the May futures options contract and heightened risk aversion to the possibility that the Fed – US would raise interest rates. USD base rate and cut economic stimulus because of excess inflation.
However, Arabica coffee prices also have support when reports of exports from Brazil and Colombia decline.
On the contrary, the price of Robusta coffee dropped again not only because Brazil and Indonesia have begun to harvest the new crop this year, but also because Vietnam’s March exports reported a sharp increase of 19.4% over the same year. in the past, has put pressure on short-term supply.
Of course, it is impossible to ignore the strong recovery of the Reais exchange rate, which has prevented Brazilians from selling their strong export agricultural products. But what if at the upcoming meeting, the Fed – the US will strongly raise the basic interest rate in USD and Copom – Brazil will continue to raise the basic interest rate in the Reais to a new high, just behind the Russian ruble due to Western countries embargo for causing wars in Eastern Europe.
Inventories of Robusta coffee, which are certified and tracked by the London floor, as of Monday April 4, have decreased by 2,610 tons, or by 2.68% compared to a week earlier, to registered at 94,890 tons. equivalent to 1,581,500 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
