What have speculators across the markets done before the possibility of tightening economic stimulus measures to prevent excessive inflation…
Robusta chart London T5/2022 session on March 14, 2022
At the end of the first session of the week, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London returned to an uptrend. Futures for delivery in May increased by 20 USD, to 2,115 USD/ton and term for delivery in July increased by 9 USD, to 2,081 USD/ton, significant increases. Trading volume remained very low below average.
On the contrary, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US floor – New York continued to decline. Spot futures in May fell another 3.15 cents to 218.80 cents/lb and futures for July delivery fell another 3.05 cents to 218.35 cents/lb, sharp declines. Trading volume quite above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 300-400 VND, fluctuated in the range of 39,900 – 40,500 VND/kg.
Coffee futures prices continued to be mixed, while the attacks on the outskirts of Kiev continued despite the two sides still negotiating. Most of the commodity exchanges fell, not only because of the risk of the war in Eastern Europe, but also the risk of the outbreak of covid-19 in the world’s largest consumer of goods, causing strong speculation in net buying to liquidate. position held.
The report that inventories in New York has exceeded the psychological threshold combined with stable supply from producing countries in Latin America – Latin America are the main reasons for the decrease in Arabica coffee prices at this floor.
In contrast, the price of Robusta coffee has escaped the pressure from New York to return to upward momentum when there are reports of major producers showing that Robusta exports are still stagnant, as most farmers are still resistant to prices in in the domestic market, forcing exporters to push prices to buy and speculators on two futures exchanges to maintain an inverse price structure lasting more than 7 months.
The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) reported that the export of green coffee beans in February reached 3.15 million bags, down 14.30% year-on-year, in which exports of Arabica coffee natural decreased by 10.15% and Conilon Robusta coffee exports fell sharply by 58.62% over the same period.
Indonesian government trade data shows that the archipelago’s Robusta coffee exports in February were only 150,458 bags, down 54.18% year-on-year. As a result, Indonesia’s cumulative exports of Robusta coffee in the first 5 months of the current coffee crop year 2021/2022 totaled only 1,314,415 bags, down 30.67% compared to the same period in the previous crop year.
The world coffee market is heading towards the day “Super Wednesday” with two policy sessions having a great influence on global commodity prices, with the possibility of raising the basic interest rate in the Reais dong of Copom – Brazil and USD of the Fed – the US, while the risk aversion is increasing with war in Eastern Europe and the risk of an outbreak of a new variant of covid-19 in China.
English (giacaphe.com)
