The report predicts that Brazil’s weather will be dry for 3 months in winter, a new factor that has pushed the coffee derivatives markets into the region. “overbought” due to fear of possible frost…
Read more: >> Frost damages coffee trees.
Robusta London chart July 2021 week 21 (from 24/05/2021 – 29/05/2021)
For the whole week of 21, London market had 4 gaining sessions and 1 sideways session. The price of Robusta coffee for July delivery increased all of USD 105, or 7.10 percent, to $1,483 per ton, and September delivery increased by all of $102, or 6.79%, to $1,605. /ton, the increases are very strong. Trading volume on average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for July delivery increased all 12.25 cents, or 8.16%, to 12.35 cents/lb and for September delivery, it increased all 12.20 cents, or 8. 02%, to 164.30 cents/lb, gains are also very strong. Good trading volume very above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 1,000 – 1,200 VND, to ranged in the range of 33,400 – 34,500 VND/kg.
The highlight of the week was the news that European and American countries eased social distancing measures, promising a rapid increase in consumption demand, while major exporting countries showed signs of tight supply, and new crops were not ready to be delivered. to the market. Especially information from Colombia, the world’s leading producer of quality Arabica coffee, has not been able to open highways to transport goods to export ports, causing nearly 900,000 bags of coffee to be delayed.
The forecast of 3-month winter weather in the southern Brazilian coffee belt will be dry, causing the market to raise concerns about the possibility of frost. While it is expected that this year’s Arabica coffee production will decline seriously, it has been offset from the crop of Conilon Robusta. However, “weather business” It is not uncommon for Brazil to enter the winter months in the coffee derivatives markets and the recent severe crop damage frosts are more than twenty years old. But global climate change makes the weather so erratic as it is now, it is impossible to know for sure what will happen. Every time there is an unusual weather forecast from a leading manufacturer is also an opportunity for “speculative bull” pushed the price up, net buying increased strongly even though the market technical indicators have entered the zone “over-bought”.
The latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) report from the New York Arabica coffee market shows that the non-commercial speculative unit raised its net long position by 1.97% in the trade week to Tuesday. on May 18, registered to be a net buy at 35,346 lots, equivalent to 10,020.434 bags. This net long position could very well have been further increased following the somewhat active period of trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from the London Robusta coffee market shows that, as of the same reporting period, short-term speculation by Money Management Funds has reduced their net long positions by 3.92% compared to a week. Before that, down registered a net buying at 30,027 lots, equivalent to 5,004,500 bags. This net long position is likely to have increased after the mixed trade period but has been somewhat more active since then.
As of Monday, May 24, inventories of Robusta coffee certified by the London floor have decreased by 80 tons, or 0.05% from a week earlier, to 159,050 tons (equivalent to 2,650,833 tons) bags, bags of 60 kg).
English (giacaphe.com)
