Although after two surveys, the Vietnam Pepper Association forecasts that pepper production in 2021 may decrease by 25-30%, but this number is still controversial among the parties.
Farmers are drying new crops.
Violent controversy forced VPA to survey production twice
At the end of 2020, after a survey of pepper growing areas, the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) said that pepper production in 2021 could decrease by 25-30% compared to 2020 to about 168-180,000 tons.
VPA said that in Bu Dop district, Binh Phuoc province recorded a sharp decrease when the number of old pepper gardens accounted for most of the area. In Dak Nong, which is considered the area with the largest pepper area in the country, the yield decreased by 15-20%.
Especially in Buon Ho town (Dak Lak), the death rate is not less than 50%. The dead pepper area has been gradually replaced by coffee and some other crops.
This is the second survey after the controversial results of the first survey. Previously, in the first survey in June 2020, VPA forecast that pepper production in 2021 would continue to plummet by 20,000 tons, equivalent to 8.3% compared to 2019 to 220,000 tons.
However, this number encountered many objections, leading to the VPA having to re-survey a second time.
A representative of VPA said that in fact, the last survey team only went to some areas close to the road. The situation of pepper dying or people switching to other crops in the rest of the regions is not fully understood by the VPA.
The controversy is not over yet
It seemed that the controversy ended here, but the leaders of the VPA themselves objected to this result.
At the VPA executive committee meeting in the first quarter of 2021, Mr. Nguyen Tan Hien, Deputy General Director of Tran Chau Import-Export Trading Service Joint Stock Company, and Vice Chairman of VPA, said that the output in 2021 will decrease but not to 30 levels. % as other forecasts.
According to calculations, the amount of pepper in 2020 has been used up and currently only has the inventory of 2019.
According to other information sources, the current inventory in 2019 is still quite large, in addition, the problems of high freight rates, delays in delivery and receipt of goods, so a decrease in prices in the short term is quite possible. .
Mr. Hien predicted that pepper prices might change in April.
“The recent VPA pepper survey focused too much on dead pepper areas, even some dead gardens many years ago.
Therefore, the Association needs to plan its own survey, should not be too dependent on local people for the results to be more objective,” said Hien.
Talking to the writer, Mr. Hien shared: “There are rumors that this year supply will be short of demand due to reduced output.
However, overall supply is still higher than demand. The current world demand for pepper is about 500,000 tons, while the supply in 2021 plus inventories of previous years is about 600,000 tons.
Mr. Hien said orders are the same as every year, sometimes even less than last year because some customers still have inventory.
On the other side, there is still an opinion that output may decrease even more than the figure stated by VPA in the second survey report.
Sharing with the writer, Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Standing Vice Chairman of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai province) said that in 2021, the output will decrease by 30-40% to 150,000 tons because people neglect pepper gardens.
Besides, the hot and dry weather of the last two lunar months of April, so the tree did not bear fruit, leading to a sharp decrease in production this year.
“In recent years, people have grown pepper due to excessive losses and bank debt,” said Mr. Binh.
Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of VPA, said that the association has asked some provincial Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development to determine the area of dead pepper in the locality, but these agencies have not yet announced it.
“The forecast must be based on the area-based data of the Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development to be accurate. If it is based on the survey, it is not standard. If hiring an independent survey agency, the cost is high, the Association cannot meet it, “said Mr. Hai.
Responding to comments that the survey was guided, Le Viet Anh, Chief of VPA Office affirmed that the Association had planned and planned in advance, completely without dependence and all thanks to businesses. VPA members or local cooperatives lead the delegation.
Proposals for in-depth survey of each locality is difficult to carry out if driving a large vehicle while the transport system in remote areas is small and uncertain.
At the same time, if going for a long time, it is difficult for businesses to arrange personnel to participate. Hiring collaborators to conduct surveys according to some members’ proposals requires additional funding.
According to the USA (Vietnambiz)
