The market raised concerns that inflation will cause many major economies to review their stimulus programs and the possibility that the Fed will adjust the current USD base interest rate…
Robusta chart London July 2021 session on May 14, 2021
At the end of the last session of the week, the price of Robusta coffee on ICE Europe – London dropped for the third consecutive session. Futures for spot delivery in July decreased by 35 USD to 1,460 USD/ton and for September delivery decreased by 34 USD to 1,486 USD/ton, sharp declines. Trading volume remain average.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US floor – New York also tends to decrease. July spot futures fell another 1.4 cents to 145 cents/lb and September futures also fell another 1.4 cents, to 146.95 cents/lb, very significant reductions. Trading volume maintained on mbreast medium.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces decreased by 600-700 VND, to range from 32,700 to 33,200 VND/kg.
Price of export Robusta coffee grade 2.5% black broken, stood at 1,506 USD/ton, FOB – HCM, with a plus difference at 20 USD/ton according to September futures prices in London.
The reais rose 0.77%, the exchange rate rose to 1 USD = 5,2720 reais due to concerns that the external market will increase inflation, causing speculative capital flows to be tightened and emerging economies tend to increase the value of its currency against the greenback.
Coffee prices continued to fall deeply due to risk concerns about the possibility that the Fed will consider adjusting the current USD base interest rate, in order to prevent inflation from increasing beyond expectations that will bring the world’s leading economy to a halt. The world is close to the brink of recession, while the risk of the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic is still present. Speculative capital flows to seek shelter caused gold prices to skyrocket again, while crude oil prices continued to increase, forcing the coffee futures market to “sacrifice”.
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), a traditionally conservative state agency, has revised its previous estimate for 2021 new crop coffee production by 0.6 percent to 46 percent. 0.7 million bags, including 31.7 million bags of Arabica and 15 million bags of Robusta, while most independent national and international forecasts average 32 million bags of Arabica and 21 million bags of Robusta.
When it was reported that Brazil’s coffee exports increased sharply in March, the market speculated that after a very impressive series of increases, it would lead to a decline in exports in the coming months. But this did not happen when Cecafé in Brazil reported that April exports, although down 8.5% year-on-year, brought exports in the first 10 months of the current crop year 2020/2021 (Brazilian coffee year). calculated from July of the previous year to June of the following year) increased by 16.6% over the same period of the previous year.
It is also worth noting that the latest inventory report certified by ICE – New York has surpassed 2 million bags, to a high of 13.5 months and tends to continue to increase in the context that the consumption is still weak. commensurate increase, as many markets are still implementing social distancing because of the pandemic, making world coffee prices even more unfavorable.
English (giacaphe.com)
