May Arabica coffee traded on Thursday closed down 8.10 cents/pound and May Robusta coffee closed down $153/ton.
Intraday markets gave up early gains early on as there was a sharp sell-off after a strengthening dollar caused futures liquidation following this week’s strong rally.
The buying of funds has supported coffee prices skyrocketing during the month and now it is time to liquidate when the market price is too high and the May deadline is about to expire, the first announcement date of May will fall. on May 22, 2024.
Forecasters are pointing to scattered rain across Brazil’s vast coffee-growing areas for the rest of this week, a normal forecast as the largest producer approaches the drier winter months ahead.
The Brazilian Real lost 4.93% in value over the past week and stabilized at a yearly low against the US Dollar yesterday. There is little incentive for sales activities to become more active at this time, given the current coffee futures market situation.
Weather conditions in Vietnam continue to be closely monitored, with reports suggesting a drier April than average conditions to date for the largest Robusta coffee producer, while the crop new from October 2024 to September 2025 in development.
Vietnam’s Central Highlands region is experiencing relatively drier weather at this time of year, as the rainy season typically begins in April, with weather forecasters predicting rainfall will begin to increase towards the end of the month.
Stocks of certified graded Arabica coffee held in the New York Arabica coffee market are said to have increased by 7,357 bags yesterday, placing the stock at 630,856 bags.
The price difference between the London and New York markets widened on Tuesday, currently at 50.07 cents/pound if including both types of coffee converted to the US standard of cents/pound. We remember that about half a month ago, the difference between the two types was still in the range of 30-31 cents/pound. People used this calculation to see more clearly the excessive increase in value of Robusta goods during the period. Recently, Robusta coffee is normally priced lower than Arabica by about 90-91 cents/pound.
The Brazilian Real continues to trade around a fairly low range of about 5.24 cents per USD, however at this time it is less affected by selling from Farmers when the Real depreciates.
Technically, the New York market is likely to fall further in the weekend trading session, because this market has now had its 5th consecutive week of increase. It is forecasted that Arabica coffee prices will decline next week due to excessive heating based on Robusta prices, which are currently too high due to the impact of dry weather, which is detrimental to crops in producing countries. main. Arabica coffee does not inherently have the same problems as Robusta.
The Robusta market is currently also based on basic information which is indeed very supportive for the price, however technically this market has been in an Overbought position for a long time, in a short period of time, it is difficult to have any information. There is no news to make Robusta prices fall for a long time, but there will definitely be an adjustment to return the price to a more reasonable level and this could happen next week. Robusta price will become unstable if the July market loses the $3,950 mark because that is the technical threshold for selling according to pre-orders of investors.
> Is coffee returning to its heyday?
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
