The coffee futures markets reversed to decline when the July winter cold in Brazil ended, prompting speculation to rush to liquidate, take short-term profits…
For the whole week of 30, the London market had 2 increasing sessions and 3 decreasing sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for September delivery fell all of $113, or 5.95%, to $1,786 per ton, and for November delivery fell all of $106, or 5.56%, to $1,801 /ton, the reductions are very strong. Trading volume above average. London floor coffee prices maintain inverse structure.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 1 gaining session and 4 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for September delivery fell all 9.45 cents, or 5.0%, to 179.55 cents/lb, and December delivery fell all of 9.50 cents, or 4.0%. 95%, to 182.45 cents/lb, sharp declines. Trading volume maintained very above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased from 1,500 to 1,600 VND, to range from 35,800 to 36,500 VND/kg.
Coffee prices on both floors reversed to decrease as soon as news of frost in the southern Brazilian coffee regions is expected to cause only minimal harm. While the Robusta coffee growing areas have been fully harvested and the Arabica growing areas are at peak harvest, it will also be completed in a few weeks. Most agronomists believe that frost will only harm the 2022/2023 crop and it is still too early to quantify this damage.
According to a weekly survey by consultants-analysts Safras & Mercado, Brazil is estimated to have harvested more than 77% of the new coffee crop, based on a forecast for this crop of 56.50 million bags. According to the survey, up to now, about 43 million bags have been harvested, including 20 million bags of Conilon Robusta coffee and 23 million bags of Arabica coffee.
The third survey by Judith Ganes, a very reputable consultant of the world coffee market, said that the damage caused by the recent frost in Brazil was only about 1%, approximately 2 million bags, while Some International Traders put the figure around 4.5 – 5 million bags.
The futures coffee markets will continue to balance and adjust speculative positions as the margin level is raised by the two exchanges. “too high” in order to limit the phenomenon “price blowing” of small speculators.
As of Monday, July 26, inventories of Robusta coffee certified by the London floor have decreased by 700 tons, or 0.48% from a week earlier, to registered at 145,010 tons (equivalent to 2,416. 833 bags, 60 kg bags).