The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) April Trade Statistics data shows that global exports in the first seven months of the current crop year 2020/2021 increased by as much as 4.1 per cent, triggering profit-taking liquidations. Short-term speculation this week…
For the whole week 22, the London market had 3 increasing sessions and 1 decreasing session. The price of Robusta coffee for spot delivery in July increased by all of USD 29, or 1.83%, to USD 1,583/ton and for September delivery increased by all USD 33, or 2.06%, to USD 1,638. /ton, the increases are very significant. Trading volume very high above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 2 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for July delivery fell all of 0.70 cents, or 0.43%, to 161.65 cents/lb and September delivery fell all of 0.65 cents, or 0. 40%, to 163.65 cents/lb, slight declines. Good trading volume very above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 500 VND, to range from 34,000 to 35,000 VND/kg.
Brazil’s output this year is short due to dry weather at the beginning of the crop, while Arabica coffee trees fall into a cyclical decline year. “two years one” spurred speculation in the futures markets back to supply concerns. Contributing to that is a report from Colombia, the world’s leading producer of high-quality Arabica coffee, which has stalled exports because of people protesting against the Government’s tax reform policy.
However, the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) April Trade Statistics data shows that global exports in the first seven months of the current coffee crop year 2020/2021 increased by 4.1 per cent year-on-year. previous year. The ICO also revised down its forecast for a global surplus from 3,286 bags to 2,019 million bags as the current coffee season’s supply is not short of as much as the market had previously forecasted. Observers said that this statistical data caused quite strong liquidation and profit taking of short-term speculation in the middle of the week.
Winter weather in Brazil is the focus of the coffee futures market today. Every weather report released at the moment has a significant impact on world coffee prices as Brazil is the leading producer, accounting for more than a third of global coffee production.
Ivory Coast, the leading producer of Robusta coffee in West Africa, reported coffee exports in April of only 6,367 bags, down 103,433 bags, or 94.20% year-on-year. Therefore, cumulative coffee exports in the first 7 months of the current crop year 2020/2021 totaled 357,151 bags, a decrease of 688,308 bags, or a decrease of 65.84% compared to the same period of the previous crop year.
The latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) report from the New York Arabica coffee market shows that the non-commercial speculative unit raised its net long position by 0.18% in the trade week to Tuesday. on May 25, registered to buy net at 35,411 lots, equivalent to 10,038,062 bags. This net long position is very likely to have been further increased following a period of more active trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from the London Robusta coffee market shows that, as of the same reporting period, short-term speculation by Money Management Funds has reduced their net long positions by 1.49% compared to a week. Before that, it registered to be a net buy at 29,579 lots, equivalent to 4,929,833 bags. This net long position is very likely to have bounced back after a very active period of trade since then.
As of Monday, May 31, inventories of Robusta coffee certified by the London floor fell by 1,450 tons, or 0.91 percent from a week earlier, to 157,600 tons (equivalent to 2,626,667 bags, bags of 60 kg).