Arabica coffee ended in the week at 399.85 cents, an increase of 27.25 cents compared to the previous week and Robusta coffee closed, lying at $ 5415/ton increased $ 138 compared to the previous week of $ 5277/ton
In the trading session on Friday weekend, coffee prices on both markets had many fluctuations and decrease in both yin and yang areas with a large difference, Arabica ended at the highest level in 7 weeks. Concerned about the smaller Brazilian coffee season is pushing the rising Arabica price. On Tuesday, Rabobank predicted that the Arabica 2025/26 coffee season, that is, the upcoming harvest of Brazil will decrease by 13.6% compared to the same period last year to 38.1 million bags, with the reason for the drought weather in the main growing areas will be significantly reduced due to the impact in the process of coffee trees in the previous time. In contrast, Robusta coffee is under pressure after Rabobank predicted that Brazil’s Robusta 2025/26 will increase 7.3% over the same period last year, to 24.7 million bags.
Coxupe, the largest Arabica coffee cooperative in Brazil, also said that the high temperature and rainfall below the normal level last month in Brazil will negatively affect coffee productivity this year.
The amount of Robusta coffee inventory increased by ICE to the highest level in 2 weeks is 4,272 lots last Thursday and the amount of Arabica coffee inventory as of Friday has increased to the highest level in 2 and a half months of 822,021 bags.
The price difference between the London and New York markets has expanded to the weekend session, to record the difference of up to 153 cents/pound as the price of Arabica continues to increase sharply and Robusta decreases.
In the context of weapons through tariff weapons applied to most countries that are imported to the United States, according to the US National Coffee Association, the annual coffee industry contributes about $ 343 billion to the US economy, with statistics that about 75% of Americans drink coffee regularly.
For decades, imported coffee has been exempt from taxes in the United States because it depends entirely on supply from abroad. The overall taxpayer for all countries provided can cause coffee prices in the United States to increase by at least 50% or more likely.
In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 32,395 tons of coffee to the United States, worth $ 180.3 million, down 13% in volume but increased by 51% in value compared to the same period in 2024.
According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, by the end of the first quarter, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 495,780 tons, worth 2.81 billion dollars, down 15.3% in volume but an increase of 45.8% in value over the same period due to high price.
The price of coffee in Vietnam on Thursday has decreased slightly compared to a week earlier, while the deduction in Indonesia was narrowed when the price of London increased and the supply was limited, according to traders.
The farmers in the Central Highlands, the largest coffee growing area in Vietnam, sold coffee for 130,000-130,500 VND (about $ 5,00-5,02) on Thursday, down compared to 132,700-133,700 VND of a week earlier. A trader based in the Central Highlands said: “Domestic prices decreased slightly did not fully reflect the global market situation, but this shows that some farmers are under pressure to sell to take cash to take care of their garden.”
In Indonesia, Robusta Sumatra coffee was offered for sale at $ 120 compared to the May contract on London, narrowed from the previous deduction of $ 150-160 last week.
Technically, the current Robusta price is going into the area quite high when reaching over $ 5400/ton and it is likely that it will increase further, now the price has exceeded the average transaction of the last 50 sessions, creating a solid mentality and hope to advance to the technical challenge of $ 5586.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
