The price of coffee in the week is when the supply situation is improved
Arabica coffee in July closed the weekly, lying at 387.75 cents compared to 385.40 cents while the price of Robusta coffee closed at $ 5226 compared to 5291 $ from the previous week.
The situation last week the price of coffee traded in the context of the supply is considered to be improved, but thanks to the weak dollar in the last trading session, it also supported the coffee market not to decline too much.
The increase was limited by signs of global coffee supply larger after the US Department of Agriculture forecasted coffee production in 2025/26 in Honduras, the largest coffee manufacturer in Central America, will increase +5.1% over the same period last year to 5.8 million bags. In addition, Safras & Mercado consultancy has increased the 2025/26 Brazilian coffee production to 65.51 million bags from the previous estimate of 62.45 million bags.
The situation of coffee inventory has also been improved, the amount of Robusta coffee inventory by ICE has increased to the highest level in 3 months in Friday is 4,418 lots. In addition, the amount of Arabica coffee inventory has also increased to the highest level in nearly 3 months, up to Wednesday last week is 844,473 bags.
In the past week, coffee prices were trapped in a narrow frame when Conab, the Brazilian crop forecast agency, raised the estimated Brazilian coffee production to 55.7 million bags from an estimated 51.81 million bags in January.
After the report of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam from January to March 2025, the Department said that the Robusta exports from January to April 2025 of Vietnam also decreased by 9.8% compared to the same period last year to 663,000 tons.
ICO reported on Friday that global coffee exports from October 10, 2024 to 10-3 2025 decreased by 2.1% over the same period last year to 67.73 million bags.
The Colombian National Coffee Federation reported that the country’s coffee production, in April, recorded a drop of 5.26% lower than the same period last year, with a total of 703,000 bags.
The contract price difference in July 2025 between London and New York markets narrowed compared to the previous week, in the range of 148.53 – 150cent.
After announcing a trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, raising expectations that other trade agreements may also take place afterwards.
From Reuters – according to a document that Reuters has, Kraft Heinz Food Manufacturer, which sells coffee with the leading US brand Maxwell House, asked their coffee suppliers to notify 60 days before the price increase due to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In the document sent in April, the company asked the suppliers to increase prices only if the tariffs are permanently applied and immediately have to reduce the price if the tariff is removed, which emphasizes the struggle that US companies face to prevent the consequences of Trump’s erratic and punishment trade policies.
Information from this document also extinguished the hope of investors in US -based companies and the Trump administration officials that companies with great purchasing power like Kraft Heinz can negotiate better agreements from their suppliers to help compensate for tariff damage.
Under the contract of the Coffee Association, including most of the shipments to the United States, the tariff costs applied in the target market ‘will be subject to the buyer’.
According to an European -based coffee trader, transporting coffee beans to the United States said that “no one (commercial) pressed the panic button, because the rules were very clear.”
Kraft Heinz, has declined to comment on this issue.
The company also said that in the document that they hope the suppliers will cooperate with them to ‘minimize the impact’ of tariffs.
Currently the United States has applied the 10% popular tariffs last month for all imported goods including coffee and negotiating separate trade agreements with different countries.
Trump has paused the plan to apply more tax rates on April 2, except for goods imported from China.
Coffee has never faced the current US tariffs, since the colonial period. This is the time when both roasters and suppliers are struggling to handle trade war issues.
Increased coffee prices can damage the Maxwell House brand friendly to Kraft Heinz’s budget. A box of 27.5 ounce (about 780 grams) is sold for $ 11.79 (ie about 378,000 VND/kg of roasted coffee) in Target, or about 21 cents for a cup.
According to Food Navigator
In fact, the price of Arabica coffee has not shown signs of stopping. Unprecedented weather has affected productivity, putting pressure on the market. Drought in recent years in main producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam is still a problem.
According to a large supplier, Matthew Algie, the continuous fluctuations in price, as well as limited access to affordable credit, can make it difficult for producers to plan or invest.
It is important that, according to suppliers, small -scale farmers do not benefit from high prices.
Why can’t the price come to farmers?
These things make it difficult for farmers to reinvest in their farms and make long -term plans.
The world events have made the price worse. For example, geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts taking place in Ukraine and the Middle East, pushed the price higher by breaking the supply chain and extending the transport route.
Finally, the rapid fluctuations in the coffee market in the future of coffee, which attracts short -term investors, are creating instability for people with long -term contracts.
High price “can temporarily increase income”, Amaro Cruz, of Frontera San Ignacio Cooperative in Peru, said, but in the long run, the price increases as well as the competition from local traders can reduce supply for fair trade markets.
“The higher income can help us improve our farm, but the fluctuations mean it is difficult to commit to investing in those.”
The minimum price of fair trade is 1.60 euros ($ 1.80) for a pound, although currently lower than the market price, aiming to provide safety grids when prices fall, thus protecting farmers from fluctuations.
Although there are some hope that the price can improve, the future is still very uncertain. Some areas are forecasting to harvest stably, but many attention is pouring into Brazil, starting this month. The frost from the winter of the country has ruined crops in the past and is likely to do so again. Price, as usual, is still unstable.
Estelle Macgilp, head of Matthew Algie’s coffee supplier, has a solution – focusing on long -term relationships.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
