The coffee market did not trade on Friday, during the holidays to prepare for Easter on Sunday, April 20. The fifth day is considered as the weekend market, the coffee price has decreased when the dollar is stronger.
At the end of the Arabica session in July closed by 1.2 cents at 372.60 cents/pound, increasing compared to the previous week, closed at 352.60Cent and Robusta coffee closed by $ 102, at $ 5277/ton. However, in the week, the price of Robusta coffee still increased more than $ 200 when compared to the previous week, closed at $ 5049/ton.
The amount of inventory of Arabica coffee by ICE increased to the highest level in 1 month in Thursday was 795,588 bags and the amount of Robusta coffee increased to the highest level in 1 week of 4,272 lots.
Although the weekend trading day has decreased, the price of coffee during the week is still counted as increasing because the rainfall below normal in Brazil can affect coffee productivity. The Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee growing area, Minas Gerais, received only 17.9 mm of rainfall in the week as of April 12, equivalent to 89% compared to the historic average.
Anxiety about supply is supporting coffee prices. Cecafe reported that last Wednesday that Brazil’s coffee export in March has dropped by 26% over the same period last year to 2.95 million bags.
Coffee is also supported after Coxupe, the largest Arabica coffee cooperative in Brazil, said the high temperatures and rainfall below the normal level last month in Brazil will negatively affect coffee productivity this year.
Last Wednesday, Arabica coffee dropped to the lowest level in 3 months due to concerns about the global trade war that reduced the price of most items, including coffee. In addition, there is concern that the demand for coffee will be affected by a higher tariff level that increases coffee prices for US consumers.
The Brazilian Real coin has increased at 6.20% since the beginning of the year. The power of the Brazilian Real Early compared to the traditional US dollar can prevent sales from Brazil, people can also comment that manufacturers have gained relatively good capital and continue to have caution stance.
Analyzing the actual situation, we need to be reminded to see that, currently the Robusta collection of Brazil, in the next month, Arabica coffee of this country will also be harvested, but the price of world market coffee does not seem to be decreased by this cause. That is a signal that the supply as well as the potential of the long -term supply has never been improved.
The weather conditions in Vietnam continue to be closely monitored, because reports report that April has a normal rainfall in history so far for this mainly Robusta producer, while the new season from October 2025 is developing. The traditional rainy season will start in April, weather forecasters predict rainfall will begin to increase by the end of the month, this will be a good sign for both producers and coffee market participants.
It is forecasted that the current coffee crop of Vietnam from October 2024 to September 2025 will reach a total of 26.50 million bags. With the initial estimated forecast for the Robusta harvest from October 2025 to September 2026, about 28 million bags.
The London market closed the Easter on Friday and Monday, while the New York market only closed Friday and traded with a shorter time on Monday.
The contract price difference in July 2025 between London and New York markets has been more relaxed, currently at 132.80 cents than the difference of last week is 124.1 cents, with cheaper part of Robusta.
Technically, our weekend news reported that the price of Robusta next week is likely to be kept in $ 5280-5300 and if there are no abnormalities of the US imported tax news, the Robusta price will be very difficult to slip $ 5,000 as it happened.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
