Coffee prices dropped sharply when the supply situation was improved
Arabica coffee in July, ending the week is at 365.65 cents, down to 22.10 cents/pound compared to the closed landmark of last week. Robusta coffee closed at $ 4865 is quite heavy, up to $ 361/ton compared to the previous week.
The end of the Robusta market has marked the lowest level in the past 5 weeks. When there are signs of larger coffee supply, putting pressure on the price after Safras Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee sales had been completed 97% as of May 13, 94% higher than the same period last year.
The increase in the amount of coffee inventory shows the number from the supply that has improved. The amount of Robusta inventory also continued to increase to the highest level in 7 months of 4,890 lots, an increase of more than 400 lots compared to the previous week. In addition, Arabica inventory has also increased to the highest level in 3 months in Friday of 851,169 bags.
Last Friday, the US Department of Agriculture forecasted 2025/26 coffee production in Honduras, the largest coffee manufacturer in Central America, will increase +5.1% over the same period last year to 5.8 million bags. In addition, Safras & Mercado consultancy has increased the 2025/26 Brazilian coffee production to 65.51 million bags from the previous estimate of 62.45 million bags.
The Brazilian National Statistical Office has also adjusted the estimated for the Brazilian coffee season 2025/2026 (will be collected in July 2025), expected to be 2.30% higher than the previous forecast, they are expected to reach 55 million bags. The forecast report of 37 million bags of Arabica coffee and 18 million bags of Conilon Robusta coffee. IBGE in tradition is very conservative in terms of data. Therefore, their forecasts are always lower than independent and international surveys. Currently, most of the forecasts of Brazilian coffee season 2025/2026 estimated at an average of about 64.50 million bags.
Safras & Mercado estimates that nearly 7% of the new Brazilian coffee season has been harvested as of May 15, 2025. This year’s harvest is a bit slower than the 5 -year average at 10% at this time.
In Brazil, weather conditions are reported to be normal, with a dry condition in most of the main Arabica coffee growing areas in the first half of May, considered normal at this time of the year. Weather forecasters are expected to start the temperature at the end of the month when the male hemisphere half hemisphere entered the winter months.
The situation of coffee in Vietnam has passed 8/12 months in the case of 25/26, the harvest time will come in about 4 months, so far exported to consumer markets with a total of 14.82 million bags in the first 7 months of the current year of coffee, while signs show that the country’s coffee has been sold about 80%. New Robusta seasons from competitors are Brazil, Indonesia and Uganda are likely to start pouring into the consumer market to support needs in the second half of this year.
Over the past weeks, the world has witnessed an increase in global markets, partly due to increased trade tensions and the negotiations that are taking place between the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China. Public notifications in April about trade and negotiations not only create instability in the global financial market but also interrupt the production lines in these countries. The temporary tariff battlefield agreement in 90 days has contributed to increasing speculation and participation of investors in the financial market, as well as with the US dollar in the monetary basket. A short -term impact in the short term may be an increase in the transportation routes, equipment and congestion of transportation routes between these two countries when export companies focus on efforts to exceed the next import tax period.
From the announcement of the US port fee, it will be applied in each stage of starting with Chinese ships, effective on October 14, 2025. With a fee of each stage. This makes it predict that the reaction may occur from Chinese exporters will take advantage of the delivery before these new port fees are effective. This rush began to stress from the logistics networks from East to West, especially in container freight, and could lead to significant congestion on the trans -Pacific transport routes.
The situation at the Brazilian port: The current situation of the Brazilian port leads to financial losses.
One information shared by Brazil’s Expocacer Cooperative estimates that in March 2025, Brazil was unable to transport about 637,000 bags of coffee – equivalent to nearly 2,000 containers – due to partly logistics congestion due to degraded port infrastructure. According to the Brazilian Coffee Export Council (Cecafé), which led to a loss of about $ 1.568 million for export revenue, as well as an additional $ 11.72 million in costs related to delays. “Brazilian ports are operating at full capacity – with outdated, lack of maintenance and lack of investment have created an unsustainable situation,” said Mario Veraldo, CEO of Logistics Company MTM Logix, said in an analysis.
Last week, farmers in the Central Highlands, the largest coffee growing area in Vietnam, sold coffee for the price of 125,700-126,200 VND/kg, decreased compared to 128,000-129,000 VND of last week.
Below is a technical judgment of Giacaphe.com: Robusta coffee price has gone down to the level of gap (GAP), which was formed on the day graph frame, at the session of April 10, 2025 this hole was formed at $ 4809-4875.
The price in the fifth and sixth sessions has also been below the average trading level of the last 200 sessions, this is a very bad signal for the buyer, but the July coffee price has gained support in the range of $ 4763-4800, this is a quite hard barrier in the hope that the purchase force will appear, keeping this milestone, it is likely that the market will be increased again.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
