Although the world pepper market is still scarce, many predict that Vietnam will harvest 140,000 tons in 2012, exceeding 40,000 tons compared to initial estimates, has stopped the price rise of this commodity.
According to estimates by the International Pepper Association (IPC), in 2012 the world will lack about 51,000 tons of pepper, while global pepper production is estimated to increase by 7.3%, equivalent to 21,755 tons, ie from 298,400 tons. of 2011, to 320,155 tons. IPC also forecasts global consumption will increase 7,550 tons to 371,000 tons compared to just 363,450 tons last year.
This figure is based on the report on the production and consumption of pepper by member countries and the evaluation of IPC at the 39th Annual Meeting meeting from 22-26 November 2011 in Lombok, Indonesia.
It is known that the increase of 7.3% of global production that IPC makes mainly in Vietnam (up 10% to 110,000 tons), Indonesia (up 8,000 tons, equivalent to 24%, to 41,000 tons) and Malaysia. (up 1,250 tons, equivalent to 5%, to 26,500 tons).
IPC also expects India's pepper output to drop by 5,000 tons, or 10.4%, to 43,000 tons due to weather and pests.
However, IPC has made the first preliminary forecast of pepper production in 2012 of its member countries: Vietnam 140,000 tons, India 42,000 tons, Indonesia 35,000 tons, Brazil 30,000 tons, Malaysia 20,000 tons, Sri Lanka 15,000 ton.
The Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) in the fourth quarter of 2011, taking into account the advantages and disadvantages of each specific production region, has confirmed: In general, the pepper crop in 2011 was assessed. As a season, the output is estimated at over 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons compared to the 2010 crop.
After that, to fully and accurately evaluate the 2012 crop, VPA organized a field trip for the field trip, divided into 2 phases. The first survey was conducted in Dong Nai and Ba Ria-Vung Tau provinces on December 29 and 30, 2011 (see here). Phase 2 in Binh Phuoc province and the Central Highlands provinces from February 14 to 17, 2012 (see here). The survey team gave an opinion: General overview of pepper production results in 2012 in the country in terms of output is estimated at 95,000 – 100,000 tons, down 10-15% compared to 2011. At the end of the harvest, data will be reported to the provinces. more exactly. The opinion of the survey team has just stopped at the reference level.
At the beginning of 2012, VPA issued a summary report of data, estimated implementation of 2012 plan as follows: Regarding output, total revenue was 109,668 tons, of which 6 key provinces were 90,168 tons, other provinces 19,500 tons. (notes from local sources).
According to the statistics report of Customs, pepper export in 2011 reached 123,808 tons of pepper of all kinds with a turnover of 732.2 million USD, up 5.9% in volume and up to 73.8% in value. compared to the same period last year.
Although it is easy to see that a fairly large amount of pepper is exported to the Chinese market by the border trade route, it is not statistically significant. IPC has repeatedly asked for a specific number of this market but VPA could not answer. Therefore, if domestic consumption is included, the annual output figure will not be around 100,000-110,000 tons.
Meanwhile, the peak of the world pepper market on March 19, in India, the price of pepper rushed to Rs 400 a kg, to Rs 413 a kg and to VND 450.05 for futures pepper. New historic landmark. In particular, the export price of India is higher than other origins of over 1,000 USD / ton, the highest ever. Price of futures on NCDEX-India was pushed up to the difference with the price on SMX-Singapore floor of approximately 2,000 USD / ton.
On April 5, a number of websites appeared: The latest estimates show that Vietnam's black pepper supply, the largest pepper producer and exporter in the world, is plentiful, Stopped upward price trend in the global pepper markets. According to the latest estimates, Vietnam's pepper output in this harvest may reach 135 – 140 thousand tons, compared with previous estimates at 100 – 110 thousand tons.
Yesterday afternoon 8/4, the price of black pepper in Ba Ria-Vung Tau continued to decline slightly to 118,000 VND / kg, in the Central Highlands to 114,000-115,000 VND / kg but the transaction amount is insignificant. Most domestic and export pepper markets are waiting for a clearer trend in the future.
Compared to a record high of nearly VND 160,000 / kg in late October and early November last year, the price of pepper has now decreased by VND 50,000 / kg, equivalent to approximately 30%.
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Source TTVN / CafeF
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