Robusta Vietnam coffee is threatened

The risk of losing position No. 1

According to the General Department of Customs, in 2024, Vietnam exported about 1.32 million tons of coffee, a record of 5.48 billion USD. Although the average export price increased sharply to 4,151 USD/ton (up 56.9% compared to 2023) thanks to the volatile global market, the actual output decreased by 18.8%, dropped to the lowest level in the past 9 years.

According to statistics from the Customs Department, by the end of April, Vietnam has exported more than 660,000 tons of coffee, earning nearly 3.8 billion USD. Compared to the same period in 2024, export production decreased by 9.8%.

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai – Chairman of Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa) – said: “Coffee production has decreased for many years due to prolonged dry weather, seriously affecting the climate change.

Vietnam’s Robusta exports are slowly, Brazil – the biggest competitor – is accelerating strongly. According to Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB), Robusta output of this country in the 2025/2026 crop is expected to reach 18.7 million bags (60 kg/bag), up 27.9% over the previous year. Safras & Mercado Analysis Company predicts that the output can reach 25-26 million bags, thanks to the expansion of the area and application of modern farming techniques.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Robusta output in the 2024/2025 crop was forecasted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to reach about 26.5 million bags and may continue to decline.

“If this momentum continues, in only 2-3 years, Brazil can completely surpass Vietnam in Robusta output,” said Trinh Duc Minh – Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association – said.

What is sustainable development of coffee?

The export turnover is still increasing every year but it is undeniable that our country’s coffee production is continuously decreasing. In order to develop sustainable goods, it is impossible not to discuss the maintenance and improvement of Vietnamese coffee production.

As of the 2023-2024 crop, Vietnam’s total coffee area was estimated at more than 709,040 ha. However, some experts in the industry said that the actual area could be about 600,000 hectares lower, because farmers switched to planting trees with higher economic value.

According to Vicofa, in order to improve coffee production, it is necessary to give priority to replanting and improving seeds, in order to switch to high -yielding coffee varieties, good quality and pest resistance. This not only helps to improve production but also reduces input costs, in accordance with the requirements of fastidious markets.

Coffee growers need to develop sustainable and organic farming models, which also contribute to stabilizing long -term productivity, while raising the selling price thanks to the achievement of international certificates. Application of digital technology, such as traceability by blockchain, QR code and electronic manual for farmers, will improve transparency and efficiency of production management.

Vietnam has enough potential to continue to maintain its leading position, but need a comprehensive reform of thinking and strategies, from farmers to businesses and management agencies. Otherwise, the Robusta coffee king – used to be the pride of Vietnamese agricultural products – will most likely change the owner.