Robusta is back on the rise

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Concerns about global supply continue to support world coffee futures prices to return to a positive trend…

Robusta London May 2024 chart February 21, 2024

At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London returned to an upward trend. March delivery futures increased by 4 USD, to 3,251 USD/ton and May delivery futures increased by 31 USD, to 3,177 USD/ton, very significant increases. Trading volume remains quite high above average.

Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US – New York floor also tend to increase. May delivery futures increased by 1.85 cents, to 188.10 cents/lb and July delivery futures increased by 1.60 cents, to 186.65 cents/lb, very significant increases. Trading volume is above average.

The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 1,200 – 1,300 VND, fluctuating in the range of 82,800 – 83,800 VND/kg.

Coffee prices on both exchanges returned to an upward trend as funds and speculation continued to buy and liquidate their net sold positions “exceed” before that, when the first notification date (FND) of the March term was approaching.

The General Department of Vietnam Customs reported preliminary data showing that coffee exports in January reached 238,266 tons (about 3,971,100 bags), up 67.45% over the same period last year, reaching the highest level in terms of coffee export in the last 5 years.

According to observers, this high export performance is not surprising because the traditional Tet holiday in previous years usually falls in January and is a month when the market operates for few days, so the amount of goods delivered on ships is often lower. . Furthermore, in January this year, the shutdown of international maritime routes has not become as serious as it is now, so the amount of goods delivered to ships achieved high efficiency thanks to the support of high London futures prices.

Currently, coffee prices in Vietnam’s domestic market seem to want to exceed international prices because export traders need to have goods to fulfill signed futures contracts that cannot be delayed further. more, while Brazilians boost sales because they need to free up warehouses to prepare for the Conilon Robusta harvest in early ripening areas, which is about to begin.

Yesterday, Wednesday, February 21, data reported by ICE – Europe showed that inventory levels continued to decrease by 20 tons, reaching a new record low of 19,580 tons (about 326,333 bags, 60 kg bags), a level low since 2014. The majority is Conilon Robusta coffee originating from Brazil.

A new crop survey report by Stone , including 44.3 million bags of Arabica natural, up 3.6% and Conilon Robusta 22.7 million bags, up 5.5%. Although expected to increase, output is still lower than potential due to dry spells at the end of 2023.

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